Memo: 2014 Political Outlook from the RSLC
To: Republican State Leadership Committee Board of Directors
From: Matt Walter, Executive Director, Republican State Leadership Committee
Date: February 4, 2014
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As Republicans look ahead to Election Day 2014, confidence at the state level is growing.  With positive momentum, a favorable and improving environment, and a comprehensive strategy to defend our past victories, we have many opportunities to gain ground this November.

For more than 12 years, the Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) has successfully invested in and won elections across the nation.  Partnering with state leaders, donors and the grassroots, we have helped build a strong bench of current and future leaders for our Party. We are proud that Republicans maintain overwhelming majorities across the country and we remain committed to helping grow these numbers in 2014. Currently, Republicans control:

• 59 of 99 legislative chambers
• 29 of 45 lieutenant governors offices
• 28 of 50 secretaries of state offices
• 24 of 50 attorneys general offices

In this election cycle, the RSLC’s Future Majority Project (FMP) is expanding to recruit, train and support 200 first-time candidates of diverse backgrounds and 300 women candidates to ensure our elected officials reflect the full diversity of America. 

Under the leadership of Chairman Bill McCollum, the RSLC kicked off 2014 with a record-breaking finance month in January, reflecting a 600 percent growth in support for the RLGA compared with 2013, RSSC’s most successful January ever and 39 percent growth by the RLCC, its most successful January ever. To continue our fundraising success, we have established a robust calendar of events, kicking-off with the RSSC Leadership meeting in Washington, D.C. on February 12, the RLGA Policy Roundtable on March 18 and the RLCC Southern Regional Meeting on May 21. We look forward to your attendance.

As we finalize our administrative transitions with the Republican Attorneys General Association (RAGA), the RSLC remains supportive of their efforts to raise money to invest in targeted races this November. As the largest national organization whose mission is to elect down-ballot, state-level Republican officeholders, the RSLC is committed to investing in races to help regain the Republican majority of attorneys general and aid them in their fights to defend our states against an overreaching federal government.

National State of Play
The state of our Republican states is strong. Republicans hold complete control of 26 state legislatures and have split control in six states.

Republicans currently control 28 of the 50 state elections offices, some of which include lieutenant governors. Among the states that elect a top elections official, Republicans control 23 of the 39 offices.^[1]

Republicans celebrated a number of successes in legislative special elections last year and in January, expanded our new majority in the Arkansas State Senate with a double-digit special election victory in Northeast Arkansas. In one of the biggest special election victories of the year, Jan Angel was elected to the 26th District Washington State Senate Seat in the most expensive State Senate race in Washington history. In Virginia, Republicans maintained the 67-seat supermajority in the House of Delegates and in California, the RSLC supported Andy Vidak in his special election to the senate, bringing Senate Republicans within striking-distance of eliminating the Democratic supermajority in the chamber.

Our party has also successfully elected new notable women in battleground states during 2013.  Jessie Rodriguez joined the strong Republican majority in the Wisconsin Assembly, the first Latina Republican representative in the state’s history. Senator Angel’s victory was a key pick up in Washington and strengthens their majority coalition. Suzanne Miles recently won a special election victory for the Kentucky House, narrowing the Democratic majority in a district with a 3-to-1 Democratic registration advantage.

Early Signs of Republican Strength
2014 will be a strong year for Republicans, building upon the momentum that has been growing on the state level since 2010. Already, we have seen the expansion of the new majority in the Arkansas State Senate, but that is only the beginning.

History has shown that both the generic congressional ballot and a President’s approval rating are reliable leading indicators for down-ballot races going into midterm elections. Within the context of historical polling, these numbers have broad implications for statewide offices and legislatures.

Within the last month, several public polls have shown Republicans with a one-to-two point advantage over Democrats in the generic ballot.^[2] To put this into perspective, at this point in 2010, the generic ballot hovered at an approximate two-point advantage for Republicans over Democrats. In fact, polls are hinting at a strikingly similar pattern for 2014 as was seen in 2010, when Democrats held a narrow lead over Republicans through the end of 2009, only to be overtaken by Republicans early in the election year, leading to historic pickups in the states.

In addition, the President's approval rating currently hovers around 41 percent.  History has shown that when the President's approval rating is below 50 percent, his party suffers massive losses on the state level.  President Nixon's approval rating was 24 percent when he left office in 1974 and Democrats gained 628 seats on Election Day.  In 1994, when President Clinton's approval rating was 46 percent, Republicans won 514 seats and in 2006, when President Bush's approval rating sunk to 39 percent, Republicans lost 322 legislative seats.^[3]

2014 Targets
Regionally, statewide Republican leaders in the West, especially battleground states such as Nevada and New Mexico, have received very high marks for job approval and favorability in recent polls.  On the contrary, corresponding Democratically-controlled state legislatures continue to receive low numbers in states such as New Mexico (30 – 45 appr/dis) and Colorado (36-51 appr/dis).^[4] With popular Republican leaders in these key swing areas and poor ratings for Democratic legislators, the potential for chamber pickups is likely for Republicans, particularly in the Nevada Senate [11D-10R], Colorado Senate [18D-17R] and New Mexico House [37D-33R].

The Midwest trends similarly with the reform minded leadership of statewide Republicans in key states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio and Iowa, where Republican Governors are leading their Democratic opponents heading into 2014. Voters in the bold reform states of Wisconsin and Michigan have demonstrated confidence their states are on the right track, with a positive outlook on the economy under Republican leadership. Similarly, recent polls have suggested voters have a favorable view of the Republican-controlled legislatures in Ohio and Iowa, and favor the direction of their states under Republican leadership.^[5]

• NEVADA - Democrats will be playing defense in the home of the U.S. Senate Majority Leader, where popular Governor Brian Sandoval is positioned to be strongly reelected. Republicans will contest open seats for Attorney General and Secretary of State – where Governor Sandoval has endorsed Adam Laxalt and Barbara Cegavske, respectively – and hold the Lt. Governor’s office while challenging a narrow Democratic majority in the State Senate [11D-10R] and State Assembly [26D-15R].
• COLORADO – In Colorado, where Republicansin the State Senate are now within one seat of having a majority after historic recalls of Senate Democrats, including the Senate President, Republicans can win both chambers of the legislature. [Senate 18D-17R, House 37D-28R] Republicans will also defend an open seat for Attorney General being vacated by term-limited John Suthers.
• NEW MEXICO - Popular Republican Governor Susana Martinez, along with Lt. Governor John Sanchez, are positioned to win a strong reelection with Republicans poised to challenge for both chambers of the legislature [Senate 25D-17R, House 37D-33R], reelect Secretary of State Dianna Duran and see a pick-up opportunity in the race for attorney general.
• IOWA - Governor Terry Branstad and Lt. Governor Kim Reynolds, listed among the The Washington Post’s “Rising stars,” are expected to win overwhelming reelection in the key battleground state where the State Senate remains close [26D-24R], and while holding the Secretary of State and State House majority.
• MINNESOTA – Look for a competitive open seat for Secretary of State and a chance to re-establish legislative Republican majorities, especially in the House.
• WISCONSIN - Lt. Governor Rebecca Kleefisch, co-chair of the RSLC’s “Right Women Right Now” program and one of the Daily Beast’s “Nine Women Remaking the Right,” is well positioned for reelection with Governor Scott Walker and will defend a competitive open seat for attorney general where J.B. Van Hollen is not seeking reelection. Republicans are poised to maintain strong Republican legislative majorities in both chambers.
• MICHIGAN - Republicans hold strong legislative majorities in both chambers in Michigan where Ruth Johnson will be reelected as Secretary of State, Bill Schuette as Attorney General along with the Governor and Lieutenant Governor.
• OHIO - Secretary of State Jon Husted was listed among The Washington Post’s “Rising stars.”  Democrats are reeling after their first choice for Lt. Governor was forced to withdraw from the race, facing hundreds of thousands of dollars in tax liens only three weeks after announcing his campaign. Attorney General Mike DeWine will be reelected.  State Senate Republicans marked their 30th straight year of holding the legislative majority with a 56-1 resource advantage, while House Republicans and their strong majority posted record fundraising totals of their own.^[6]
• FLORIDA - Republican Carlos Lopez-Cantera, the state’s first Hispanic Lieutenant Governor, will be voted into his first full term in office, and strong majorities in both legislative chambers will be returned. Attorney General Pam Bondi is in a competitive race and is poised to win reelection.
• WEST VIRGINIA - Republicans continue to gain momentum in a state recently characterized as one that dislikes President Obama the most.^[7] With its recent filing deadline, Republicans announced they filed challengers in every district across the state, while 19 Republican incumbents will run unopposed.^[8] [Senate 24D-10R, House 53D-47R]
• PENNSYLVANIA - The popularity of President Obama continues to fall to record lows, dropping to a record low 30 percent job approval in a new Franklin and Marshall poll, while Republicans are well-positioned to protect a Senate majority they have held since 1980 with only one exception, and a House majority that recently won a special election with over 80 percent of the vote.^[9]

Conclusion
The RSLC will wage an aggressive and well-funded effort in 2014.  We are proud to be the largest caucus of Republican state leaders in the country. We thank RLCC Chairman Speaker Sam Smith of Pennsylvania, RLGA Chairman Tate Reeves of Mississippi, RSSC Chairman Secretary of State Brian Kemp of Georgia and their dedicated executive committees for their leadership and ongoing commitment to electing Republicans to state level offices across the nation.  Nicholas Confessore of The New York Times recently called the “ … RSLC the most successful political organization of the generation.” We thank all of you for your partnership and with your help, we will build upon our strong legacy.

Together 2014 will be our best year yet!

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1. http://www.nass.org/contact/sos-members/
2. PPP, 1/12-1/26, R42, D40; Quinnipiac, 1/15-1/19, R38, D37; GWU, 1/12 – 1/16, R43, D41
3. http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-presidencys-political-price/
4. “National Democrats say they’re not targeting Nevada Gov. Sandoval,” The Washington Post, 11/7/13; Common Cause, Research and Polling Inc. 12/20/13 – 1/2/14; Colorado Quinnipiac Poll, 11/19/13.
5. Iowa Quinnipiac Poll, 12/17/13; Ohio Quinnipiac Poll, 11/26/13.
6. http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2014/01/31/0130-gop-candidates-raising-more-money.html
7. http://swampland.time.com/2014/01/27/these-are-the-states-that-dislike-obama-the-most/
8. http://www.statejournal.com/story/24600051/candidate-filing-produces-some-familiar-names
9. http://www.politicspa.com/fm-poll-obama-reaches-new-lows-in-pa/54634