- The Road to Cleveland « April 8-9, 2016 Colorado Congressional Assemblies and State Convention
April 8-9, 2016* CO Cong. Assemblies and State Convention
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April
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April
19
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37 Delegates
Summary: Colorado Republicans' delegate selection process
in Colorado produced a clear win
for Cruz. Although Trump cried foul, it appears that his campaign
was simply out-organized and outmaneuvered by the Cruz campaign.
COLORADO CONG. ASSEMBLIES AND STATE CONVENTION (37 delegates)
Organization: BUSH
|
CRUZ
| FIORINA
|
KASICH
|
PAUL
|
RUBIO
|
TRUMP
OVERVIEW
Although Colorado's delegate selection process
seemed a bit convoluted, it was a pretty straightforward sequence of
precinct caucuses, county assemblies, multi-county/congressional
assemblies and a state convention (see FAQ*).
In Aug. 2015 the Colorado Republican
Party executive
committee voted to eliminate the straw poll at the March 1 precinct
caucuses. This meant that on the evening of March 1 there was
nothing to report in the way
of presidential results, although the caucuses happened and carried out
their normal
business; the state party notes that over 60,000 Colorado Republicans
showed up in over 2,000 precincts around the state.
The next step, county assemblies, occurred throughout
March, attracting little attention.
The spotlight turned on Colorado Republicans for the
multi-county/congressional assemblies which selected 21 congressional
district delegates (three per district). Two of these assemblies
were held on April 2, one on
April 7, and the other four on April 8 in conjunction with the state
convention in Colorado Springs. At the state convention some 600
people vied for the 13 at-large delegate positions. The outcome
of these gatherings
was a decisive win for Cruz, who spoke at the convention on April
9.
REACTIONS
Cruz for President
April 9, 2016
Cruz Wins Colorado
Cruz Campaign Sweeps All 34 Delegates,
Has Now Beaten Trump Four Times in a Row
HOUSTON, Texas – After a
sweeping victory in Colorado, Presidential candidate Ted Cruz issued
the following statement:
“Today was another resounding victory for conservatives, Republicans,
and Americans who care about the future of our country. Utah, North
Dakota, Wisconsin, and tonight’s incredible results in Colorado have
proven this: Republicans are uniting behind our campaign because they
want a leader with real solutions who will bring back jobs, freedom,
and security.
“This election is about the hope that our children can still have a
more promising landscape of opportunity than generations past. It’s
about bringing together Americans from all backgrounds who know that we
will be stronger, more prosperous, and infinitely more free if we
return power in Washington back to the people. So that Americans are
free to create better jobs, live and worship freely, and once again
proudly defend ‘the last best hope of earth.’
“Thank you, Colorado, and we ask moms and dads, students and retirees
across this country to join us so that together we make this election a
turning point for the nation.”
________________
April 10, 2016 Tweet from Donald
J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
The people of Colorado had their vote taken away from
them by the phony
politicians. Biggest story in politics. This will not be allowed!
________________
April 12, 2016
Facebook post by CO GOP Chair Steve House
How did Ted Cruz win 30 pledged delegates in Colorado
without "corruption" or the election being "rigged" or without
"stealing votes" from the voters. I get this question several dozen
times a day from disbelievers who think some how I was biased. The
answer is simple math and a good strategy. This is an unbiased
math/strategy view not intended to be critical of anyone. I am just
answering the questions for many who either think I cheated or I am
some kind of scum bag.
Simple Math: In our congressional district assemblies
you have to elect three delegates. Let's say for example that in a
given congressional district Cruz had a 51 to 49% advantage in
delegates that supported him. Because we allow delegates to vote for 3
delegates, not just one, the majority can never be beaten unless it
makes a mistake. Think of it as 3 separate delegate elections because
each voter can vote three times(6 when you include alternates). In
election 1 your majority out votes the minority to pick the candidate
you want. Same in election 2 and 3. So how does the minority win a
delegate? The majority makes a mistake and disperses their vote across
to many delegate candidates while the minority focuses on just one two
or three.
Strategy:
The Cruz campaign did a great job of keeping their voters focused on a
very small slate of people. Evidence of this is the number of votes
they got for their pledged delegates in each race and the number of non
Cruz, either un-pledged or Trump alternates, elected in the CD and
state races. The Cruz team did not put slates of 6 delegates up in a CD
which would have allowed, 3 delegates and 3 alternates, they put up
only 3 on a slate to focus the votes and win and they did and lost a
fair number of alternates (14 of 34) to Trump and Unpledged.
In the state assembly you also do the same thing
although it is harder because you have more delegates. It still came
down to 13 separate elections because the voters could vote for all
13(technically they can vote for 26 to include alternates but let's
stay on just the delegates). I believe their were more Cruz supporters
at the state assembly then there were Trump supporters and the margin
was probably 5-10%(majority rules anytime it stays focused). If you
look at the vote totals for the delegates who won they are all over
1,500 votes and even the first 3 alternates are Cruz pledged and over
1,500. From there it drops dramatically in total votes per alternate to
around 500. How does this happen? Focus on a slate of 13, put it on a
bright orange T-Shirt, text the numbers to all your supporters and you
win.
Knowing the rules and focusing on just the delegate
races and not the alternates was the key to victory. There were 40
pledged Trump delegates who got votes exceeding 90 apiece with the
highest being 493 - Patrick
Davis. The total is well over 5000 votes. Focus on 3 or 4 instead
of being so dispersed over 40 delegate candidates and Mr. Trump wins 3
or 4 delegates. Ted Cruz delegates got 28,000 votes in the top 16.
Focus. Similar strategy could have been deployed in the CD's.
Lastly others have yelled it me because they believe a
state wide straw poll, which would have involved maybe 80,000 people,
would have allocated out delegates proportionally statewide. It doesn't
work that way. The CD formulas and overall at large delegates are still
allocated the same way. It is still 8 different elections.
Let me know if you have questions or I am missing something.
DELEGATES
National
delegate
allocation: Cruz 34. (+)