to Dec. 31, 2013                 
Potential Republican Presidential Candidates – Year in Review 2013

Given the flat economy Republicans thought that they could make President Obama a one term president in 2012.  That did not happen, but after eight years of a Democrat in the White House the pendulum may be ready to swing to the Republicans.  The GOP will need to nominate a candidate who can appeal to more voters than Romney or McCain did.  At this early stage of the 2016 cycle many names have been mentioned.  Some, such as Sen. Ted Cruz and Sen. Rand Paul, were often in the news; others have kept a lower profile.

BUSH - CARSON - CRUZ - CHRISTIE - HUCKABEE - HUNTSMAN - JINDAL - KASICH -
KING - PALIN - PAUL - PERRY - RUBIO - RYAN - SANTORUM - WALKER

Former Gov. Jeb Bush (FL) - In March former Gov. Bush made a splash with Immigration Wars: Forging an American Solution (Threshold Editions), which he co-authored with Clint Bolick.  The book presents a six-point strategy to achieve immigration reform; it does not go so far as advocating citizenship for those who arrived in the country illegally.  On March 15, Bush delivered the keynote address at CPAC's Ronald Reagan Dinner, outlining for the conservative audience how to get the Republican party "in the front again."  He did not make much news during the rest of 2013, however.  Bush said several times during the year that he is defering consideration of a possible 2016 bid until the proper time.  He could likely count on some establishment support, but some activists view him as a moderate and the prospect of a third Bush in the White House might be too much for others.  His mother Barbara Bush said on NBC's Today show in April that, "He's by far the best qualified man."  She then added, "There are other people out there that are very qualified and we've had enough Bushes.”  Bush, who finished his two terms as governor in Jan. 2007, is founder and chairman of the board of the Foundation for Excellence in Education (ExcelinEd), a 501(c)(3) which seeks "to build an American education system that equips every child to achieve his or her God-given potential." 


Dr. Ben Carson - Since retiring in June 2013 after a distinguished 40-year medical career, Dr. Carson has kept busy with the work of the Carson Scholars Fund, an organization which he co-founded in 1994 and which has granted over 5,700 scholarships for "superior academic performance and demonstration of humanitarian qualities."  In addition to many speaking engagements (he is represented by the Washington Speakers Bureau), Carson writes a weekly column and serves as a FOX News contributor.  He is the author of five books, most recently America the Beautiful (Zondervan, Jan. 2012), and he is working on another, One Nation, scheduled for release May 2014.  Carson's inspirational life story - he grew up in poverty in a single parent home in Detroit and did poorly in school, yet rose to become a neurosurgeon at Johns Hopkins - was even the subject of a 2009 movie starring Cuba Gooding, Jr., "Gifted Hands: The Ben Carson Story," which aired on TNT.  As the Dr. Ben Carson for President facebook page says, "His life is a great example of the American Dream."  More recently, Carson has drawn attention for speaking his mind.  At the President’s National Prayer Breakfast on Feb. 7, 2013, Carson "took on the PC world" and took the opportunity to address some of the problems facing the country, even advocating health savings accounts as President Obama sat a few feet away.  The Atlantic magazine described him as "the New Conservative Folk Hero."  Carson has given a number of political speeches, including at CPAC in March.  In his speech at the Values Voter Summit in October he drew attention for declaring, "Obamacare is really, I think, the worst thing to happen to the nation since slavery."  Supporters have tried to persuade Carson to seek elective office, including a petition to draft him to run for U.S. Senate in his home state of Michigan.  In August the National Draft Ben Carson for President Committee, directed by Vernon Robinson, formed.  The super PAC aims to convince Carson to run for president and is working to build a grassroots organization that can take him to the White House.  On Dec. 3 the committee announced it had raised more than $1 million.  Carson has responded to such initiatives stating that "...as of today it is not my intention to seek public office. Instead I will continue to strive very hard to not only expose what is happening in our nation, but also to suggest ways to regain a direction that will lead our nation towards freedom and justice for all." 


Gov. Chris Christie (NJ) - One of the biggest challenges facing New Jersey is recovery from Superstorm Sandy, which struck with devasting force on Oct. 29, 2012.  The recovery effort has been a major focus for Christie; indeed he describes it as his mission.  "[T]hat mission is to make sure that everyone, everyone in New Jersey who's affected by Sandy is returned to normalcy in their life," Christie declared in his re-election victory speech on Nov. 5, 2013.  "And I want to promise you tonight, I will not let anyone, anything, any political party, any governmental entity or any force get in between me and the completion of my mission."  according to a fact sheet from the governor's office, in the year since Sandy, New Jersey has received more than $5.67 billion in total federal assistance for recovery.  Recall that back on Oct. 31, 2012, when President Obama arrived at Atlantic City Airport to tour Sandy damage, Christie gave Obama a warm greeting and handshake.  This was six days before Election Day, and although Christie had been an active surrogate for Romney, some conservatives believe the "tarmac moment," may have helped Obama defeat the Republican nominee.  Conservatives have some other gripes with Christie.  He was not invited to address the 40th annual CPAC held March 14-16; according to one news account his positions on guns did not sit well with the conference organizers.  He also fell afoul of social conservatives on Oct. 21 when he dropped the state's appeal to the New Jersey Supreme Court on the issue of gay marriage.  The Family Research Council issued a statement which concluded, "...Combined with his signing of a radical bill to outlaw even voluntary sexual orientation change efforts with minors, today's action has given conservatives serious pause about Gov. Christie's reliability."  The release of the 2012 campaign book Double Down at the beginning of November, generated some news; according to the account a generally unfavorable view of Christie as a possible running mate emerged in the Romney campaign's vetting.  Those who know him best approve of the job Christie is doing.  On Nov. 5 he was resoundingly re-elected to a second term.  Although Democrats enjoy a voter registration advantage of more than 700,000 in New Jersey (Democrats have 33.1-percent, Republicans 19.8-percent and unaffiliated 47.0 percent), Christie defeated state Sen. Barbara Buono by 60.4-percent to 38.1-percent, carrying all but two of the state's 21 counties.  According to CNN exit poll results, he carried 51-percent of the Latino vote.  In his victory speech (>) Christie declared, "I did not seek a second term to do small things, I sought a second term to finish the job.  Now watch me do it."  Touting his success he said that "maybe the folks in Washington, DC should tune in their TVs right now to see how it’s done."  The resounding win established Christie as something of a frontrunner among the 2016 GOP presidential prospects.  A Ready for Christie PAC launched "to encourage and rally support for New Jersey Governor Chris Christie to run for President in 2016."  Further, on Nov. 21 Christie became chairman of the Republican Governors Association, a key position for 2014 when gubernatorial elections will be held in 36 states.  Christie is also sporting a leaner look.  In February, he secretly underwent lap band surgery to address his obesity; this was not know publicly until reported on May 7.  However, 2013 ended on a controversial note for Christie as "Bridgegate" unfolded over several weeks in late December.  During his re-election campaign, at least 60 Democratic elected officials had endorsed Christie, but Fort Lee's Democratic Mayor Mark Sokolich was not one of those officials.  In September, Christie appointees at the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey ordered lane closures on the George Washington Bridge for a mysterious traffic study, leading to four days of traffic gridlock in Fort Lee.  Christie's critics see this as an example of "petty bullying tactics," but whether this is a scandal or a tempest in a teapot must wait for full development of the facts.


Sen. Ted Cruz (TX) - Sen. Cruz's Facebook page describes him as a "passionate fighter for limited government, economic growth, and the Constitution."  He has also been called a "wacko bird" (by Sen. John McCain, who later apologized), a "right-wing nut job" (by former Gov. Howard Dean) and a "Texas hothead" (by the Washington Post's Dana Milbank) and portrayed as the Mad Hatter (on the cover of the Oct. 13 issue of Bloomberg Businessweek.  Editorial cartoonists have had a field day caricaturing the now 43-year old Senator from Houston.  One year into his first term, Cruz has made a mark as a Tea Party idealogue with a confrontational style.  In March he delivered the keynote address at the 40th annual CPAC (>).  Target number one for Cruz is the Affordable Care Act; he has been one of the fiercest critics of Obamacare and has pushed relentlessly for full repeal of the law.  On Sept. 24-25 he spoke for 21 hours and 19 minutes on the Senate floor, a talkathon, technically not a fillibuster, in opposition to Obamacare that included a reading of Dr. Suess' Green Eggs and Ham.  He was one of the leaders in the strategy to defund Obamacare as a condition for funding the government (the continuing resolution), which led to the 16-day government shutdown starting on Oct. 1.  Finally, on the evening of Oct. 16, hours before the U.S. government reached its debt limit, the Senate achieved a deal, the House approved it, and after midnight President Obama signed it into law.  The shutdown was seen as doing significant damage to the Republican brand, but Cruz was unapologetic.  Around this time, on Oct. 11, Cruz won the Values Voter Summit presidential straw poll with 42-percent of the votes.  Capping off the year, in December, the U.S. Senator "Ted" Cruz to the Future Comic Coloring Activity Book (Dec. 5, 2013, Really Big Coloring Books®, Inc.) achieved #1 bestseller status in the Children's Coloring Book category on Amazon; it is, after all, "approved by teachers and educators."  Cruz was also one of four runners up to Pope Francis as Time magazine's 2013 Person of the Year.  Cruz gives every indication that he intends to make a presidential bid.  In Nov. 2012, a week after he was elected, he established a leadership PAC, the Jobs, Growth and Freedom Fund; and in March he established the Cruz Victory Committee, a joint fundraising committee with his Senate campaign committee.  He has made a few visits to the early primary states.  And, at year's end the story emerged that he is taking steps to renounce his dual Canadian citizenship.


Former Gov. Mike Huckabee (AR/FL) - On Nov. 27 Huckabee announced he would end his nationally syndicated radio show, stating "...the contract was at a decision point for both Cumulus Media and me, and we mutually agreed to conclude."   "The Mike Huckabee Show," which started in April 2012 and was broadcast on over 200 stations in 44 states, ran through Dec. 12.  Days later Huckabee announced that in Jan. 2014 he will launch the "Huckabee Post" web site in partnership with Christian Media Corp..  Huckabee continues to host "Huckabee" which airs on FOX News on Saturday and Sunday evening.  He continues to promote his various books including the paperback reprint edition of his most recent book Dear Chandler, Dear Scarlett: A Grandfather's Thoughts on Faith, Family, and the Things That Matter Most (Sentinel, Nov. 2012) which came out in Oct. 2013.  Huck PAC, which Huckabee formed in 2008, started endorsing candidates for 2014 in November.  Huckabee has been a resident of Florida since 2010, and it seems unlikely he would foresake home at Blue Mountain Beach for the travails of another presidential campaign. He was not mentioned in presidential speculation until Dec. 2013.  On Dec. 13 he told CBN's "The Brody File" "there's a new openness" to a 2016 presidential run.  In a Dec. 22 appearance on "FOX News Sunday" he stated, "I would say maybe at this point it is 50-50.  I don't know. I don't know that I can put a percentage on it."  


Gov. Bobby Jindal (LA) - In January, Gov. Jindal made waves on the policy front, announcing a bold plan to eliminate the corporate income tax, the personal income tax and the franchise tax, while expanding and raising the sales tax to keep the proposal revenue neutral.  The second week of March was a busy time for Jindal.  On March 10 he delivered a very well received speech at the Gridiron Club and Foundation Dinner in Washington, DC.  On March 14 he presented details of his tax proposal at a joint meeting of the House Ways & Means Committee and the Senate Revenue & Fiscal Affairs Committee.  On March 15 he addressed CPAC, calling on conservatives to "reorientate our way of thinking."  Back in Louisiana, Jindal's tax reform proposal proved controversial and generated significant opposition and on April 8 he announced his decision to "park" the package.  Through 2013 Jindal served a term as chairman of the Republican Governors Association, being succeeded by Gov. Chris Christie on Nov. 21.  In October he announced formation of America Next, a 501(c)(4) based on the premise that "conservatives must be willing to demonstrate that we have the courage of our convictions by going on the offense in the war of ideas."  


Former Gov. Jon Huntsman (UT) - In an appearance at Saint Anselm College's New Hampshire Institute of Politics on Nov. 25, former Gov. Huntsman did not rule out a second bid for the White House.  Huntsman has kept involved in the political arena in several ways.  In January, No Labels, "a citizens' movement of Democrats, Republicans and independents dedicated to a new politics of problem solving," announced Huntsman and Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) as its chairs.  On Oct. 26 he launched a weekly radio show, "No Labels Radio with Jon Huntsman" on Sirius XM's POTUS channel.  Huntsman drew a bit of attention when he announced his support for gay marriage.  In a Feb. 21 article in The American Conservative he wrote, "There is nothing conservative about denying other Americans the ability to forge that same relationship with the person they love." (>)  In May Huntsman formed Red Rock PAC, which is "focused on electing reform-oriented Republicans."  Huntsman also served as co-chair of a Commission on the Theft of Intellectual Property, which issued a report in May. While a Huntsman 2016 campaign seems unlikely, a small group of dedicated supporters on Facebook continues to advocate for him to run.


Gov. John Kasich (OH) - Gov. Kasich has not given overt signals that he is interested in running for president in 2016, such as visiting key early primary states or setting up a leadership PAC.  He first must get re-elected in Nov. 2014, and that could be a challenge considering he was elected by just two percentage points (49.04 to 47.04) in 2010.  Matt Carle, who served as Kasich's director of legislative affairs, started as campaign manager in August.  Kasich can point to an array of accomplishments in the first three years of his administration; at the top of the list is turning a $7.7 billion budget deficit into a surplus, and filling the state's rainy day fund to a record $1.48 billion.  In "A Year in Review" video (>), Kasich highlights 2013 accomplishments, first of which is, "We cut taxes by $2.7 billion, more than any other state, by cutting income taxes 10 percent for all Ohioans and by cutting taxes for virtually every small business in half."  Not mentioned, the state sales tax rate increased from 5.5-percent to 5.75 percent on Sept. 1 and new property taxes are coming into effect.  Kasich also states Ohio is investing "$1.6 billion in new money in education, the largest increase in a decade."  And he states, "We found an innovative and a creative way to tackle Ohio's most pressing transportation needs."  (The Ohio Turnpike is to "issue bonds backed by future toll revenue and use that money to build critical transportation projects mostly in Northern Ohio.")  In a surprising move in October, Kasich went against Republicans in the General Assembly and pushed through expansion of Medicaid; the state will accept $2.5 billion provided for by the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare).  Ohio Democrats have pointed to a various reports indicating that Ohio's economy is lagging behind the national economy.  They have also been critical of of Kasich's JobsOhio, "a private, nonprofit organization that promotes job creation and economic development for Ohio."  In the first half of 1999 Kasich waged an exploratory campaign for the 2000 Republican nomination.  Sixteen years later, there may be another Kasich presidential run, but much will depend on 2014. 


Rep. Pete King (NY) - The ten-term congressman from Long Island (NY-2) has been a sharp critic of Sen. Ted Cruz and his strategy which led to the government shutdown.  In an Oct. 14 interview on "Piers Morgan Live," King stated, "[W]e have to go after him...we are not going to allow Ted Cruz to hijack this party, and bring the country to the edge of ruin.  It's just wrong."  King, who is a member of the Homeland Security Committee and chairs the Sub-Committee on Counterterrorism and Intelligence and is as well a member of the Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, has also lambasted Sen. Rand Paul for advocating "isolation."  King's considerations of a possible presidential campaign include five visits to New Hampshire since August.  On Dec. 13 he formed a leadership PAC, the American Leadership Now PAC, to help cover travel expenses and support like-minded candidates; ABC News described the PAC as an "anti-Tea Party PAC."


Former Gov. Sarah Palin (AK) - Former Gov. Palin seems more of a celebrity than a possible presidential candidate, but she remains a player on the political scene.  Palin has a bit under four million likes on Facebook and over a million followers on Twitter.  In the 2012 cycle Sarah PAC raised $2.8 million; it spent only a small portion of that in support of candidates, but Ted Cruz, for example, has highlighted Palin's support.  Sarah PAC could likewise have an impact in 2014; its website proclaims. "Let's Oust the DC Establishment in 2014."  There are a host of Palin support sites on the web, including a Palin4President 2016 site.  In March, former Gov. Palin delivered one of the most enthusiatically received speeches at CPAC, loaded with zingers and highlighted by a "Big Gulp moment" aimed at NYC Mayor Bloomberg (>), yet she tied for ninth in their presidential straw poll.  Palin's third book Good Tidings and Great Joy: Protecting the Heart of Christmas (Harper Collins) came out on  Nov. 12 and she launched it with a 15-city book tour that began in Bethelehem, PA.  On the media front, FOX News' contract with Palin ran through Dec. 31, 2012 and the network did not renew it.  On Dec. 9 Sportsman Channel announced that Palin will host a new show "Amazing America with Sarah Palin."  The weekly series, described as "an anthology of stories that explore some of the most original, interesting – and sometimes inspiring – people, places and pastimes connected to America’s outdoors lifestyle" is scheduled to commence in April 2014.


Sen. Rand Paul (KY) - At 11:47 on March 6, Sen. Paul began what would turn out to be a 12- hour, 52- minute filibuster of nomination of John Brennan to be director of the CIA, in an attempt to draw attention to the Obama administration's obfuscation on the question of whether it viewed drone strikes on U.S. soil as permissible.  Thousands supported the effort; #standwithrand was a top trending topic on Twitter for hours.  A week later Paul received an enthusiastic welcome at the 40th CPAC joking, "Now I was told I've got ten measly minutes, but just in case I've got thirteen hours of information."  In his speech Paul addressed a topic much on Republicans' minds, how to grow the party.  He stated, "The GOP of old has grown stale and moss-covered--I don’t think we need to name any names here, do we?  Our party is encumbered by an inconsistent approach to freedom.  The new GOP will need to embrace liberty in both the economic and personal sphere."  Paul finished first in CPAC straw poll, backed by 25-percent of the 2,930 participants ahead of colleague Sen. Marco Rubio who finished at 23-percent.  A liberty issue that drew Paul's attention was the revelation that National Security Agency surveillance is collecting billions of emails and phone calls.  It was this issue that set off the tiff between Paul and Gov. Christie when, speaking at the Aspen Institute on July 25, Christie warned, "I just want us to be really cautious because this strain of libertarianism going through both parties now and making big headlines I think is a very dangerous thought."  Christie went on to refer to "the widows and the orphans" of 9/11.  Paul responded with a tweet, "Christie worries about the dangers of freedom.  I worry about the danger of losing that freedom.  Spying without warrants is unconstitutional."  Paul and Christie exchanged barbs over much of the rest of the year.  Paul advanced the idea of a class action lawsuit on the NSA surveillance, and for the latter part of 2013 his RAND PAC (Reinventing a New Direction PAC) website featured a "Stand With Rand: Join the Class Action Lawsuit" banner, prompting hundreds of thousands of potential plaintiffs to sign up.  At the end of October a potentially very damaging situation arose for Paul.  MSNBC's Rachel Maddow reported that he appeared to have plagiarized from Wikipedia in a recent speech.  In the week that followed, news organizations uncovered a number of other examples of plagiarized passages in Paul's writings and speeches.  Paul announced that he was changing the "approval process" in his office, which he conceded had been "sloppy," and he accepted responsibility, telling CNN's Wolf Blitzer, "Ultimately I'm the boss, and things go out under my name, and so it is my fault."  This appear to defuse the problem.  On Dec. 6, in a speech at the Detroit Economic Club, Paul introduced his proposal for Economic Freedom Zones, under which there would be reduced taxes and red tape in impoverished areas.  (Paul introduced the bill, S.1852, on Dec. 18, with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell as co-sponsor).  At the end of that speech a questioner asked, "What are your plans for running for president in 2016?"  Paul responded, "Where is my cell phone?  Can I call my wife?  [inaud.] there's two votes in my family; my wife has both of them and both of them are no votes right now.  So if I'm a very able politician, I'll tell in a year whether I'm able to persuade my wife."  Of all the potential candidates, Paul has made the most visits to the early primary states (two visits to Iowa, one to New Hampshire and four to South Carolina).

 
Gov. Rick Perry (TX) - On July 8 Gov. Perry announced he would not seek re-election in 2014 (>).  In prepared remarks he stated, "Texas works.  The jobs prove it.  The revenue picture proves it.  The number of people moving here proves it.  And that hasn't happened by accident.  Texas works because we have less government, less spending, fair regulations, and lower taxes."  Perry is the longest serving governor in Texas history, and when he finishes his tenure he will have led the state for a bit over 14 years.  Yet for some Americans their most lingering impression of Perry comes from his campaign for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination.  The "oops" moment in the debate in Auburn Hills, MI on Nov. 9, 2011, when he could not recall the third federal department he was proposing to eliminate, crippled Perry's candidacy, and, many would argue, his national prospects.  But Perry is showing many signs that he might run again.  Since August, he has sported a new look: wearing glasses.  In September he formed Americans for Economic Freedom, a 501(c)(4).  In mid-October, as Washington was enmeshed in the government shutdown, Americans for Economic Freedom ran a campaign-type ad touting the accomplishments of conservative governors.  In November Perry made a two-day trip to Iowa and in December he made a two-day trip to South Carolina.


Sen. Marco Rubio (FL) - On Jan. 28 a bipartisan group of eight senators (Republicans Graham, McCain and Rubio; Democrats Bennet, Durbin, Menendez, and Schumer) working on immigration reform unveiled "Bipartisan Framework for Comprehensive Immigration Reform."  At that time Sen. Rubio was seen as one of the leading potential candidates for president in 2016.  On Feb. 13 he delivered the response to President Obama's State of the Union Address; many recall not what he said but that he paused to take a sip of water.  Also in February, National Journal profiled Rubio as "The Player" and Time magazine heralded him as "The Republican Savior."  In March he finished second to Rand Paul in CPAC's straw poll.  On April 17 Rubio and his colleagues introduced the Border Security, Economic Opportunity & Immigration Modernization Act of 2013.  S. 744 weighed in at 844 pages.  Conservatives did not like this bill.  On his Senate website Rubio had to put up an extensive myth-busting section to counter some of the misinformation around the legislation.  For example, one of the myths was, "The immigration bill will give free cell phones to immigrants with work visas."  These were dubbed "amnesty phones" or even "MarcoPhones."  Although the Senate passed the bill, which as amended totalled 1,197 pages, on June 27 on a 68-32 vote, immigration reform did not advance in the House.  Rubio's involvement in the immigration reform bill cost him severely among conservatives.  In the latter part of the year, Rubio, a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and the Select Committee on Intelligence, burnished his foreign policy credentials.  On Nov. 20 he delivered a speech "Restoring principle: A foreign policy worth of the American dream" at the American Enterprise Institute.  Rubio stated that, "Many other nations, adversaries and rivals, have been emboldened by our uncertain foreign policy."  He charged that the Obama administration "lacks a clear strategic foreign policy."  In December he made a three-day visit to London, meeting with government officials and delivering a major speech on the Transatlantic Alliance.  Rubio does have a PAC, the Reclaim America PAC ('electing conservatives to the United States Senate), but, aside from one appearance in Iowa in Nov. 2012, he has not been making visits to early presidential primary states.


Rep. Paul Ryan (WI) - On Dec. 10, 2013, Rep. Ryan, chairman of the House Budget Committee, and Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA), chairman of the Senate Budget Committee, announced they had reached a two-year budget agreement which would "avoid government shutdown in January, provide certainty to businesses and families, and return budget process to regular order." (>)  Although some conservatives found fault with the compromise, it passed both houses of Congress.  Ryan does lead all potential 2016 candidates in Facebook likes at 4.9 million, in large measure the result of his time as vice presidential nominee.  However, he is seen as more interested in seeking the chairmanship of the House Ways and Means Committee when that opens up in 2015, than in making a run for the presidency.  He confirmed his interest in the Ways and Means position in a Dec. 17 interview with the Wall Street Journal.  Ryan is just 43 years old; if 2016 doesn't beckon, he could seek the White House in a future cycle.


Former Sen. Rick Santorum (PA) - After doing surprisingly well in his 2012 campaign for the Republican nomination, in which he won Iowa and ten other states, former Sen. Santorum looks as if he wants to make another run at the White House.  On June 8, 2012 Santorum announced  Patriot Voices, a 501(c)(4) that has continued to serve as his base throughout 2013.  There is also a Patriiot Voices PAC, which has already made a few endorsements in the 2014 cycle.  During 2013, Santorum made a couple of visits each to Iowa and South Carolina in addition to delivering speeches at venues such as CPAC and the Values Voter Summit.  In June Santorum assumed the position of CEO of EchoLight Studios, which describes itself as "America's Fastest Growing Faith & Family Film Company."


Gov. Scott Walker (WI) - Opposition to Gov. Walker's proposals to limit collective bargaining rights led to dramatic protests in the State Capitol in Madison in the first part of 2011, culminating in the June 5, 2012 recall campaign, which Walker won by a margin of 53.1-percent to 46.3-percent.  It was the costliest election in Wisconsin history; the Wisconsin Democracy Campaign put total spending in the campaign to recall Walker at $81 million.  Walker emerged from the battle as a hero to conservatives.  Speaking at CPAC in March 2013, Walker summed up his accomplishments: "We came in and took that deficit, $3.6 billion and today it's nearly a half a billion dollar surplus.  We took a state where taxes had gone up and we not only lowered the overall tax burden for the first time in years, property taxes on a median valued home have actually gone in each of the last two years.  And when it comes to jobs, under my predecessor's term, Wisconsin had lost 133,000 jobs, and back in 2010 a survey of employers in the state showed that just 10-percent, just 10-percent of our employers thought we were headed in the right direction.  Well today we're gaining jobs and 93-percent of our employers say Wisconsin is headed in the right direction."  The Wisconsin Democratic Party has a different view; they charge Walker has violated his 2010 promise to not raise taxes, and has "raised taxes on working class families to the tune of $69.3 million - all while giving a massive $83 million tax cut to his corporate pals."  As 2013 drew to a close Walker administration was conducting a major review of the state's tax code, considering, among other ideas, the possiblity of eliminating the state's income tax.  In November, Walker came out with a book, co-written with Marc Thiessen.  Unintimidated: A Governor's Story and A Nation's Challenge (Sentinel HC, Nov. 19, 2013) prompted 2016 speculation.  Walker has made a brief visit to South Carolina and a brief visit to Iowa, but he must first win re-election in 2014; he is likely to face former Secretary of Commerce Mary Burke. 


talk:


Donald Trump (NY) - Businessman Donald Trump, president and chairman of The Trump Organization, spoke at a number of conservative and Republican events during the year, including the Oakland County (MI) Lincoln Day Dinner, CPAC, and the Family Leader Conference in Iowa.  On May 27 the New York Post, citing Michael Cohen, executive vice president and counsel to Trump, reported that, "Donald Trump has spent more than $1 million on electoral research for a potential presidential run in 2016."  In October some state Republicans, looking for a credible challenger to Gov. Cuomo, started an effort to encourage him to set his sights on Albany (>).  Trump's myriad business ventures continue apace.  In May, Trump announced that NBC had renewed Celebrity Apprentice for another season.  In August New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman sued Trump for $40 million over Trump University.  In September the Trumps announced details of their plans for a $200 redevelopment of the Old Post Office Building in Washington, DC into a Trump International Hotel.  In the political realm, however, the Donald has been mentioned as a potential candidate a bit too many times.


not in:

Gov. Bob McDonnell (VA) - Gov. McDonnell, one of eleven semi-finalists in Romney's vice presidential search according to Double Down, had been seen as a likely 2016 presidential candidate into March 2013 (>).  Then on March 30 the Washington Post reported on gifts by Star Scientific CEO Jonnie R. Williams to the McDonnells ("Va. Gov. McDonnell on two -way street with chief executive of struggling company").  In the succeeding months detail after detail piled up, and the gifts scandal severly weakened McDonnell as he finished out his term. 



REPUBLICAN PROSPECTS' VISITS TO KEY STATES, from Nov. 7 2012 to Dec. 31, 2013
Iowa
The tally of 17 visits, 22 days is more than compared to 2008-09 (the same point in the 2012 cycle), when there were 13 visits, 15 days, but fewer than in 2004-05 (2008 cycle) when there were 23 visits, 36 days.  

Brown
Cruz
Huckabee
Palin
Paul
Perry
Ryan
Rubio
Santorum
Trump
Walker
Visits: 17
2
3 2
1
2
1
1
1
2
1
1
Days: 22
2
4 2
1
3
2
1
1
4
1
1

New Hampshire
Aside from Rep. Peter King's multiple visits, potential GOP candidates made just a handful of trips to NH.  This is consistent with 2009, the same point in the 2012 cycle, when there were just a couple of visits.  In 2005, the same point in the 2008 cycle, there was considerably more traffic, however.

Cruz
Huntsman
Jindal
King
Paul
Ryan
Visits: 10
1
1
1 5
1
1
Days: 12
1
1
1 7
1
1

South Carolina
Sen. Rand Paul made the most visits.

Cruz
Huckabee
Huntsman
Jindal
Paul
Perry
Santorum
Walker
Visits: 14
2
1
1
1
4
2
2
1
Days: 17
2
1
1
1
5
3
3
1



FEATURE ARTICLES
.
CHRISTIE
Benjamin Wallace-Wells.  "What Is Chris Christie Doing Right?"  New York.  Aug. 12, 2013.
Michael Smerconish.  "Could Chris Christie Become President?"  Philadelphia.  July 2013.
Michael Crowley.  "The Boss."   Time.  Jan. 21, 2013 (cover date).

CRUZ
Jason Zengerle.  "Ted Cruz: The Distinguished Wacko Bird from Texas."  GQ.  October 2013.
Andrew Ferguson.  "Washington Builds a Bugaboo."  The Weekly Standard.  Sept. 23, 2013

PAUL
Jill Lawrence.  "Medicine Man."  National Journal.  Oct. 17, 2013.
Frank Rich.  "It's Hard to Hate Rand Paul."  New York.  Sept. 22, 2013.
Stuart A. Reid.  "The Education of Rand Paul."  Washington Monthly. July/August 2013.
Julia Ioffe.  "President Rand Paul."  The New Republic.  June 17, 2013.

RUBIO
Michael Grunwald.  "Immigrant Son."  Time.  Feb. 18, 2013.  also: "The Rest of the Story" >
Beth Reinhard.  "Can Marco Rubio Live Up to the Hype."  National Journal.  Feb. 14, 2013.



See also:
Calvin Woodward.  "2016 Campaign Checklist: They've All Been So Busy."  Associated Press, Dec. 30, 2013.
Democratic National Committee.  "The Struggles of the 2016 GOP Field."  Dec. 18, 2013.