Ed. note:
Vox first published this six-page Clinton campaign memo on Aug. 12, 2015.


TO: Interested Parties
FROM: Robby Mook, Campaign Manager, Hillary for America
RE: State of the Race, Summer 2015

Winning a presidential campaign is never easy. It’s not supposed to be. But while the Republicans are mired in an increasingly bizarre and contentious primary, where even the would-be front runners are struggling to be heard, Hillary Clinton stands in a very strong position to win the Democratic primary and the general election. Despite an onslaught of attacks from the Republicans and an unprecedented level and tone of media scrutiny, Hillary leads all of her would-be Republican opponents in virtually every general election survey. Hillary for America has broken fundraising records, broken social media engagement records and - by a wide margin - we have the strongest ground organization ever assembled in the early states and around the country at this stage in a presidential campaign.

While we fully anticipate a competitive primary and general election, the reality is that the GOP brand continues to erode by the day. Last week’s GOP debate put a spotlight on the problem, leading The Washington Post to conclude that “much of the Republican field has now taken positions that are at odds with mainstream American opinion.” Poll after poll shows that the positions they hold are out-of-date and out-of-step with everyday families - and the nature of the GOP primary will only exacerbate the divide between the candidates and the general public, particularly key swing voters. Furthermore, many of the leading GOP candidates are relying heavily on their Super PACs rather than building a campaign field organization they control.

STARTING FROM A POSITION OF DURABILITY AND STRENGTH

There’s no doubt that over the past few months, as she transitioned from a popular former Secretary of State to a political candidate, Hillary Clinton has been the target of an unprecedented volume of attacks and level of scrutiny. But if there’s one thing the American people know about Hillary Clinton, it’s this: when she gets knocked down, she gets back up, comes back stronger and never quits. She’s been that way her entire life.

The proof is in the data, which shows that Hillary maintains a sizable lead in the primary and leads all potential Republican opponents in the general. While we always have, and continue to, anticipate a very competitive race, Hillary stands today in a very enviable position.

Fact: Hillary Clinton leads each of the Republican candidates by an average margin of 7-15 points in national polls [pollster.com]

Fact: Hillary Clinton has a higher favorable rating than any of the Republican candidates. [pollster.com]

THE CHALLENGES AHEAD

Like any presidential campaign, we face our share of challenges. Many of those challenges stem from a unique set of circumstances; today, there are 17 Republicans, 4 Democrats, 2 billionaire brothers,countless Super PACs and 501(c)(4)s and an entire right wing special interest apparatus - all running squarely against Hillary Clinton. On top of that, congressional Republicans are waging a multi-million dollar, taxpayer-financed campaign against her. It has also gone on longer than the investigations of Pearl Harbor, the Kennedy assassination, Iran-Contra and Hurricane Katrina. In the face of these unprecedented headwinds, we’ve made a strategic decision to fight back and set the record straight.

The fact remains, the Democratic primary will be competitive. History guarantees it:

Fact: Aside from Tom Harkin, no Democratic candidate who wasn’t a sitting President or Vice President has won over 50 percent support in the Iowa caucuses.

Fact: No Democrat, except for a sitting president or vice president, has earned more than 40% of the primary vote in New Hampshire in the last 25 years.

THE GOP’S DAMAGED BRAND: OUT-OF-DATE AND OUT-OF-TOUCH

It’s difficult to overstate how damaged the GOP brand is, as a majority of Americans view the Republican Party as out of date and out of touch. Their increasingly backwards agenda was on full display at last week’s debate. In addition to Donald Trump’s hateful comments, the voters saw other candidates reiterate their plans to repeal Obamacare, let Wall Street write its own rules again, defund Planned Parenthood and even eliminate the Department of Education.

From the economy to immigration to health care to LGBT rights, the majority of Americans are in one place - and the leading GOP candidates are in another. Simply put: America is moving forward and the Republican candidates are stuck in the past.

Fact: Last week, NBC/WSJ released a survey that showed just 28% of Americans have a positive view of the Republican Party. [NBC/WSJ, July 26-30]

Fact: Fifty-three percent of Americans think the Democratic Party is more concerned with the needs of people like them, while just 31% said the GOP [Pew Research, July 14-20]

Out of touch with the middle-class: All of the Republican candidates support a top-down, trickle-down economic approach - the American people do not. They’re looking for a President who knows that a strong economy is based on a strong middle class:

Fact: Sixty percent of Americans support increasing taxes on high earners in order to lower taxes on the middle class [Quinnipiac, July 23-28]

Fact: Fifty-eight percent of Americans think it’s mainly just a few people who have a chance to get ahead, while just 38% think that everyone has a fair chance to get ahead [CBS/NYT, July 14- 19]

Out of touch with African Americans: As we were reminded with the recent 50th anniversary of the Voting Rights Act, none of the Republican candidates supports measures to expand access to and ease of voting. In fact, many have worked to put up new obstacles. When asked if he thought that the horrendous murders in a South Carolina church were motivated by race, Jeb Bush said, “I don’t know.” And most of the GOP field haven’t even addressed issues like criminal justice reform, racial disparities in America or the racial wealth gap.

Fact: Hillary Clinton has strong support among African Americans: 83% say they have a favorable opinion of her according to a July 2015 PPP poll, while just 9% are unfavorable. Meanwhile, views of the GOP presidential candidates among African American voters are bleak; Jeb Bush, for instance, has a net favorability of negative 58 points (17 / 75) and five candidates (Cruz, Huckabee, Paul, Trump and Walker) have favorability ratings below ten.

Fact: Hillary Clinton's support in the general election horserace matchups in the July 2015 PPP poll is even stronger than was President Obama's support against Mitt Romney at the same point in the 2012 election cycle. In PPP’s July 2011 poll, Obama had a 66 point margin among African Americans. In PPP’s 2015 July poll, Clinton leads all tested Republicans by at least 74 points.

Out of touch with Hispanics: In 2013, RNC Chairman Reince Priebus said: “In essence, Hispanic voters tell us our Party’s position on immigration has become a litmus test.” If he was right, then the entire GOP field is failing the test - as nearly every Republican candidate opposes a pathway to citizenship. Jeb Bush insists only on “legal status,” which the Hispanic community knows is code for second class status. Scott Walker and Marco Rubio both oppose a pathway. Meanwhile, a strong majority of the American people support a pathway to citizenship.

Fact: Seventy-two percent of voters think undocumented workers in the U.S. should be allowed to stay. Just 27% think they should not be allowed to stay. [Pew, May 12-18]

Fact: Fifty-four percent of Hispanic voters said they would be more likely to vote for a candidate who supports a pathway to citizenship, only 22% of Hispanic voters think Republicans share their views on the economy and job creation. And only 20% of Hispanic voters think Republicans share their views on immigration. [Univision, July 16]

Fact: Among Hispanic voters, Hillary Clinton has a substantial lead in both the Democratic primary and general election matchups. She wins 73% of Democratic primary voters. In general election matchups, she leads five major Republican candidates (Bush, Cruz, Paul, Rubio, Walker) by an average margin of 44 points. [Univision, July 16] For context, this is the same margin that President Obama won the Hispanic vote by in 2012. [New York Times National Exit Polls]

Out of touch with women: One Republican candidate has said the Senate was “wasting time” debating equal pay for women; another once asked, “what is the Paycheck Fairness Act?” and every Republican in the field either has, or wants to, defund Planned Parenthood. Thursday night’s debate clearly demonstrated a party that fundamentally doesn’t understand the challenges facing women in America.

Fact: Sixty-three percent of Americans (including 68% of Independents) oppose defunding Planned Parenthood. [Hart Research, July 23-26]

Out of touch with LGBT Americans: All of the major Republican candidates supported an Indiana law that allows businesses to discriminate against LGBT citizens. And none of them believe that everyone should be able to marry who they love - here again, the American people disagree with them.

Fact: Fifty-four percent said it was wrong for businesses to refuse services to LGBT Americans, while 28 percent said they should have that right. [Reuters, April 2015]

Fact: Fifty-four percent of Americans support legal same-sex marriage. [Pew July 14-20]

Out of touch with Millennials: Millennials are strong supporters of all the issues discussed above, so it’s not surprising that Hillary holds such a commanding lead with them - according to three of the most recent national polls:

Fact: Hillary holds a lead of 63-36 (+27) over Bush among 18-34 year-olds. [CNN July 22-25]

Fact: Hillary holds a 56-24 (+32) lead over Bush among 18-29 year olds (Marist July 22-28). This is a wider margin than President Obama’s margin of victory in 2012 among 18-29 year olds, which according to exit polls was +23.

So It’s Not Surprising the GOP Candidates Themselves Are Under Water

Given that the Republican candidates have each embraced the out-of-touch positions that have eroded the party brand, it’s easy to understand why they’re not faring much better.

Fact: In terms of favorability, nearly every candidate in the field is significantly underwater and neither Bush, Rubio nor Walker even cracks a 35% approval - and most are viewed favorably by less than a third of voters [pollster.com]

Fact: Even establishment favorite Jeb Bush has limited appeal. In last week’s NBC/WSJ poll, his favorability is tied with that of Donald Trump - each man is at 26% favorability [NBC/WSJ July 26- 30]

THE GOP BRAND AND THE MAP

In an electoral map that already skews towards Democrats, the Republican’s out-of-touch agenda puts those 270 Electoral College votes even further out of reach. Assuming the Democrats continue to win Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan (all of which they’ve won in every election since 1992), Democrats will need 23 out of the 85 electoral votes in remaining swing states Nevada, New Hampshire, Iowa, Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, and Florida. Minority voters represent key voting blocks in five of these states and the GOP is doing virtually nothing to appeal to these voters.

OUR PLAN

Winning campaigns have a plan and stick to it, in good times and bad. President Obama endured significant pressure in 2007 to abandon his strategy, but his campaign remained focused on winning in Iowa and ultimately prevailed.

It is therefore critical that Hillary Clinton’s campaign continues to focus three priorities: (1) delivering a clear message, (2) raising the right kind of resources, (3) understanding the importance of data, analytics and technology, and (3) building the type of robust ground and online organization it takes to win primary states and the general election.

(1) Delivering Message: Over the past four months, Hillary Clinton has delivered a clear message: at a time when the deck is stacked for those at the top, she’ll fight to help everyday families get ahead and stay ahead. Because she believes that when families are strong, America is strong.

The campaign has laid out her message systematically in the following ways:

  • The campaign recently launched its first two TV ads in Iowa and New Hampshire, to clearly lay out where Hillary comes from, what motivates her to serve and the fights she has won for everyday families. The timing has allowed her to take advantage of the relatively uncluttered airwaves to define herself before the GOP Super PACs ramp up their attacks.

  • While Republicans continue to drive their brand further under water by “out Trumping” each other at debates, Hillary is laying out how she’ll be the tenacious fighter for everyday Americans that voters want. She’s laid out specific policy proposals on:

o Economic growth
o Wage growth
o Small business growth
o College affordability
o Holding Wall Street accountable o Immigration reform
o Voting rights
o Criminal justice reform
o Climate change
o Pre-K
o Campaign finance reform

  • These issues are true to Hillary’s core principles, popular with Democratic primary voters and appeal to a general election audience.

(2) Raising the right kind of resources: Hillary Clinton has raised more primary money in her first quarter than any other candidate in history, with 94% of those donations coming in amounts of $250 or less. Whereas we are raising campaign money from grassroots donors, most of the leading Republicans have chosen to focus their fundraising efforts through Super PACs, which has clear downsides. In 2014, TV rates for Super PACs in competitive markets skyrocketed, while candidates are guaranteed the lowest unit rate. In 2014, some stations in competitive markets sold out of inventory and Super PACs were unable to buy time altogether. By relying on Super PACs, Republicans are not only surrendering strategic control of their message, they risk being priced out of TV or potentially not even having the opportunity to buy time when it matters most. By focusing on raising campaign dollars, our campaign will get more TV time for those dollars and we’ll have access to the most coveted slots.

(3) Data, Analytics and Technology: The campaign has already retained many of the nation’s most talented analysts, software engineers and digital strategists – recruiting some of these key staff members from leading private sector companies. They are developing strategies and building technologies to reach voters in a more effective and efficient way than ever before. These early investments will reap rewards in fundraising, targeting and voter turnout for many months to come.

(4) Building the ground game: Simply put, the campaign has organized and mobilized more volunteers in more places that any candidate ever has at this stage in a presidential campaign.

The early states:

  •  Iowa: the campaign has secured a committed caucus-goer in all 1,682 precincts and has been endorsed by a third of the state’s county chairs. The campaign has over a dozen offices open - more than any candidate, Democrat or Republican - and has thousands of active volunteers.

  •  New Hampshire: We are building a town-by-town volunteer infrastructure and have opened six offices – more than any other candidate.

  •  Nevada: Hillary is the only candidate with offices in northern and southern Nevada. The campaign’s state leadership just completed a 17-county tour to secure committed caucus-goers and recruit volunteers in every precinct of the state. Reno Gazette-Journal reporter Ray Hagar said Hillary is “the most organized candidate on either side right now.”

  •  South Carolina: Hillary was the first Democratic candidate with staff on the ground and remains the only one with offices in the state. This head start has provided an organizing advantage in the Palmetto state - Hillary’s team has already organized 400 events across the state and volunteers have contacted more than 50,000 voters.

    Organizing nationwide for the primary and beyond:

  • The campaign has active volunteer leaders in every state, the District of Columbia, the U.S. Territories, and Democrats Abroad.

  • At the campaign’s official launch in June, the campaign held over 650 organizing meetings, including at least one in every congressional district in the country (delegates in the Democratic primary are allotted by Congressional District).

  • Throughout the summer, volunteers have participated in monthly “Days of Action,” during which volunteers have signed up over 25,000 new supporters at over 500 community events across the country.

    Building an unprecedented online community:

  • Our digital community is growing faster than either then-Senator Obama’s or then-Senator Clinton’s did at this point in the 2008 campaign, with more donors and supporters than either campaign had 8 years ago.

  • Hillary has more followers on social media than all other candidates – Democrat or Republican – combined, with the exception of Donald Trump. She currently has more than 5.4 million social followers.

  • More than 1 million supporters have joined the campaign on Facebook since the campaign launched in April.

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