- Hillary
Clinton « Aug. 27, 2015 RNC Memo: "Hillary Clinton's
Plummeting Poll Position"
RNC Memo
TO: Interested Parties
FROM: Chris Carr, RNC Political Director
RE: Hillary Clinton’s Plummeting Poll Position
Date: August 27, 2015
As the DNC gathers for its summer meeting, their preferred frontrunner Hillary Clinton is on the ropes. After beginning the year as the overwhelming favorite to win the Democrat nomination, Clinton now finds herself trailing a 73 year-old socialist in New Hampshire and with ever shrinking leads in other states. Clinton also trails multiple GOP contenders in key battleground states and has seen her personal favorability plummet, in no small part due to the ongoing scandals over her secret email. And with Democrats starting to hit the panic button, Vice President Biden is leaning towards a bid that would complicate her candidacy even further.
Early State Polling
Recent polling has shown a complete collapse for Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire, where Bernie Sanders has opened up a 7-point lead according to two separate surveys. On Tuesday, Democrat pollster Public Policy Polling showed Sanders surging to a 42-35 lead over Clinton, who led by 33 points in the same poll in April. Last week, a poll by Franklin Pierce University showed Sanders turned a 39-point deficit into a 7-point lead and that just 35 percent of Democrats are excited about Clinton’s candidacy. General election matchups don’t provide much better news, with a recent WMUR/UNH poll showing Clinton trailing multiple GOP contenders. In Iowa, Clinton continues to lead Sanders but by significantly smaller margins. The most recent surveys by Quinnipiac University and Public Policy Polling both showed Clinton’s lead over Sanders drop more than 20 points and multiple GOP candidates running even or ahead of her in the general election.
If Democrats are weak in NH/IA, as @ForecasterEnten has
long thought they might be, Clinton is a terrible candidate to make up
for it
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) July
26, 2015
Battleground State Polling
The numbers don’t get any better for Clinton in key swing states. The
most recent polling from Quinnipiac University showed Clinton losing
more ground and falling behind multiple GOP candidates in each of the
battlegrounds of Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and
Virginia. In those six states, Clinton’s favorability is underwater by
an average of 17 points, voters say she is not honest and trustworthy
by an average of 25 points, and majorities say she does not care about
the needs and problems of people like them – arguably the deciding
question of the 2012 election. And in reliably blue Michigan, Clinton
has trailed multiple GOP opponents in two separate polls in the last
week. With these states – and their 111 combined electoral votes –
in
play, Republicans have multiple pathways to the presidency.
National Polling
Clinton’s terrible standing in the swing states is also mirrored in
national polling. The most recent national Gallup poll pegged Hillary
Clinton with her worst net favorability rating since 2007. CNN found
Clinton’s favorability at its lowest point since March 2001 and
with
independents viewing her unfavorably by a 30-point margin. The most
recent Associated Press poll showed Clinton losing support among
Democrats and just 39 percent of Americans viewing her favorably. Fewer
than 1-in-3 voters described Clinton as honest and just 4-in-10 said
she was likeable. Even Democrat pollster Public Policy Polling puts
Clinton’s favorability underwater double digits in its most recent
national survey.
The O Factor
Clinton’s chances also depend on the standing of her party’s incumbent
president, Barack Obama. Historically, winning the White House three
cycles in a row is a very difficult undertaking for either political
party. President Obama is a long way off from being a political asset
in the battlegrounds that will determine the outcome of the election to
succeed him. Voters in these key states overwhelmingly want a change in
direction from the president’s policies and his job approval remains
stuck in the low 40’s.
OBAMA BATTLEGROUND JOB
APPROVAL
CO |
40/56 |
(-16) |
FL |
39/54 |
(-15) |
IA |
43/51 |
(-8) |
NH |
41/52 |
(-11) |
NV |
43/52 |
(-9) |
OH |
42/53 |
(-11) |
PA |
39/54 |
(-15) |
VA |
44/52 |
(-8) |
(Source: Huffington Post Average Of Polls, Accessed 8/23/15)
ConclusionWith Clinton’s email scandal getting even worse, her poll numbers are unlikely to recover anytime soon. The fact that Clinton, who has universal name ID, is seen even less favorably today than when she lost the nomination in 2008 is a truly ominous sign for Democrats. It is still early in the cycle and this is not to say Clinton won’t be able to run a competitive campaign – she will have $2 billion behind her if all goes according to plan. But should Hillary Clinton win the nomination, Democrats will be in a weak position, hamstrung by an unpopular incumbent president and a standard-bearer who is, as MSNBC recently put it, “exactly the kind of candidate a majority of Americans say they don’t want to vote for.”