February 23, 2016

 

To: Interested Parties

 

From: John Weaver

 

RE: Beltway Rubio Bubble

 

While some insiders move to anoint Marco Rubio as the Republican nominee, the results to date serve as a reality check and warning about the viability of Senator Rubio’s path to the nomination.

 

Key Facts:

 

ROI/Primary Map: Marco Rubio stock is the ultimate insider bubble. While Rubio has burned through more than $52 million, the return on investment for his supporters has been dismal. Rubio has spent $5 million per delegate. His $7.5 million investment in South Carolina produced ZERO delegates. His operation outspent Governor Kasich’s by $3 million in New Hampshire and received almost 50% fewer votes. His vaunted 3-2-1 plan failed and his back-up plan is to have the nomination handed to him.

 

With a primary map frontloaded in a way that should help Senator Rubio, he is under major pressure to begin picking up a substantial number of delegates beginning tonight in Nevada. Failure by Senator Rubio to exit the SEC primary without a big delegate lead will spell the effective end of Senator Rubio’s campaign because the primary map becomes far less favorable to him, even including his home state.

 

Conversely, Governor Kasich has wisely marshalled and targeted his resources in a far more strategic way. As the campaign moves to the bigger, Midwestern states, the Kasich campaign will be able to take advantage. This steady strategy may frustrate the media and establishment types in Washington who want to appoint Senator Rubio today, but it’s the voters who choose the nominee and not the elites.

 

Long-term Primary Appeal/Ready to be President: Republicans aren’t looking for another teleprompter-dependent Senator to be President. Instead, Republicans want a “call it like they see it” conservative who will actually deliver results.  Governor Kasich is the only candidate who has the authenticity voters want and the experience of someone who is prepared to be President. To borrow from a great Oklahoman, Toby Keith, America needs a little less talk and a lot more action. Governor Kasich’s record is one of action and results, not just talk.  

 

General Election Match-up: Lost amid the media-driven narrative is the fact that Governor Kasich is the candidate best positioned to defeat Hillary Clinton in November. Make no mistake, Hillary Clinton will be the Democrats’ nominee. Polling and common-sense dictate that Kasich is the candidate who can win. In the most recent national matchup he leads Secretary Clinton by 11 points, which would translate into an electoral landslide.  He has a unique appeal to swing voters in industrial states and has unique ability to expand the map by competing in Northeastern states where the GOP has struggled in recent Presidential elections.

 

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