April 5, 2016
 

TO: Interested Parties 

FROM: John Weaver, Chief Strategist 

RE: The Nomination Contest is Wide Open

 

The nomination contest is now wide open. 

 

This week will be remembered as the one in which Ted Cruz and Donald Trump both effectively admitted they will not reach the GOP Convention with enough bound delegates to be the nominee. 

 

Rather than admit their own electoral and political shortcomings, they are blaming John Kasich, the only Republican who can defeat Hillary Clinton in November.

 

Donald Trump complained, “If I didn't have Kasich, I automatically win.” Meanwhile, The New York Times reported, “Ted Cruz is fuming because John Kasich won’t bow out.” 

 

This morning The Wall Street Journal editorial summed up the real reason for their yowling: “[What] Trump and Cruz really fear is… the convention might want to nominate a potential winner. 

 

John Kasich is the only candidate who can unite the Party and win the White House.

 

No One Will Reach 1237

Tonight’s results will solidify the fact that no candidate will reach Cleveland with 1237 bound delegates. Heading into today, Ted Cruz was already mathematically eliminated, needing 102% of outstanding bound delegates. Donald Trump needs to win 2/3 of remaining bound delegates.

 

Kasich Now Top Trump Competition

The Wall Street Journal correctly noted today that “Kasich has more political appeal than Mr. Cruz in the southern New England and mid-Atlantic states that are more suburban and moderate.”

 

That is confirmed by our internal data, which shows Gov. Kasich running a close second to Trump throughout the eastern seaboard and leading in many critical Congressional Districts.

 

Only John Kasich Can Win the White House

Gov. Kasich is the only candidate who can defeat Hillary Clinton. 

 

Only John Kasich Can Prevent Massive GOP Down-Ballot Losses

As Cook Political Report recently reported, Cruz or Trump as nominee would likely be an electoral disaster for down-ballot Republicans.

 

Cook Political Report:

 

"They're about to detonate a nuclear bomb on themselves," said one savvy House Democratic strategist following Tuesday's primaries. "If Ted Cruz is your back up plan, you're screwed," the strategist gleefully added…

 

[I]t's impossible to know just how bad it could get for Republicans sharing a ballot with Trump or Cruz… [T]here hasn't been a true presidential blowout in 20 years. Today, rates of split-ticket voting are at all-time lows and House candidates are defined by their party and the top of the ticket more than ever…

 

Among the types of seats Democratic strategists believe Trump or Cruz could put into play are: 1) high-Hispanic districts, 2) high-education districts and 3) high-income districts. There's no doubt Trump or Cruz could cause Republicans huge problems in heavily Latino districts, including CA-10, CA-21, CA-25, CO-06, FL-26, NV-03, NV-04 and TX-23. And the heavier the drag from the top of the ticket, the more expensive these types of seats will be to defend.