TO: Interested Parties

FROM: Ilya Sheyman, Executive Director, MoveOn.org Political Action
            Charles Chamberlain, Executive Director, Democracy for America

SUBJECT: End of Q1 Strategy Update – Run Warren Run Momentum Building – April 7, 2015

Strategy Update: Overview

Senator Elizabeth Warren has said from the outset that she is not planning to run for the White House. Our robust draft effort is explicitly aimed at building movement support and early state infrastructure to carry the message that, in the words of ​​​The Boston Globe' ​s editorial board,​ "​she ought to reconsider."

As we enter the second quarter of 2015 — 10 months before the Iowa Caucuses and 120 days since the start of the Run Warren Run​ campaign —the underlying conditions for an Elizabeth Warren presidential candidacy are more favorable than ever.

Senator Warren finds herself with a huge outpouring of grassroots energy and enthusiasm for her to run, a message about fixing a "rigged" system that's defining the agenda for the entire potential field, the largest on-the-ground operation in early states of any potential candidate, a polling floor in second place in both Iowa (1​6%)​and New Hampshire (2​2%)​, and a growing level of political and intellectual support for a candidacy.

"The Draft Warren movement is developing the scope and character of a classic draft effort. And a classic draft effort — with grassroots energy and validation from former cabinet members and major media — is hard to ignore." - T​he Nation's John Nichols


A Growing Level of Political and Intellectual Support

In addition to the founding groups of the Run Warren Run campaign (M​oveOn.org​ and Democracy for America) ​the calls for a vigrouosly contested primary including Senator Warren have been joined by national, local and state groups, editorial boards, labor leaders, and progressive leaders including members of Congress. These include:

  • ●  New York Working Families Party

  • ●  Boston Globe E​ditorial Board

  • ●  Robert Reich,​ former Secretary of Labor under President Clinton

  • ●  Larry Cohen,​ Communication Workers of America* President

  • ●  Annie Leonard, ​Greenpeace USA* Executive Director

  • ●  Congressman Keith Ellison, ​D-MN

  • ●  Congressman Mike Capuano, ​D-MA

  • ●  Lawrence Lessig,​ H​arvard Professor and MayDay.us* Founder

  • ●  Javier Valdés,​ Make the Road NY Executive Director

  • ●  27 New Hampshire Lawmakers

  • ●  16 Iowa Democratic Leaders

    These leaders join countless local leaders like ​Jennifer Epps-Addison​ of Wisconsin Jobs Now and local grassroots organizations like the C​onnecticut Citizen Action Group​ as well as the already existing Super PAC, R​eady for Warren.​

    (* Organizational affiliations included for identification purposes only.)

    From 9​8% of likely caucus-goers and voters in Iowa and New Hampshire​to t​wo-thirds of national Democrats,​there is overwhelming support for a vigorously contested Democratic Primary that would benefit the Democratic Party, the country, and the party's eventual nominee. In the words of Hillary Clinton supporter L​anny Davis,​“If for some reason Warren changes her mind and decides to run, vigorous competition and debates among fellow progressives on the best ideas to achieve similar goals will end up strengthening the ultimate Democratic Party nominee — just as was the case for Barack Obama in 2008.”


  • Huge Outpouring of Grassroots Energy and Enthusiasm for the Draft Warren Movement

    • ●  More than 317,000 people have signed onto the effort at R​unWarrenRun.org.​

    • ●  Supporters have hosted more than 220 h​ouse parties ​in 46 states (as well as Washington, D.C., Puerto Rico, and Guam).

    • ●  More than 9​0 artists and celebrities​— including actors, directors, and musicians like Mark Ruffalo, Edward Norton, Susan Sarandon, Chloë Sevigny, and Michael Moore — have called on Senator Warren to run.

    • ●  Even characters in the iconic comic strip D​oonesbury​ are chanting Run Liz Run.

      While supporters continue to rally at Senator Warren's events across the country calling on her to run, the draft campaign has generated hundreds of v​oicemails,​videos, and letters to the editor from Americans nationwide.


The Largest On-The-Ground Operation in Early States of Any Potential Candidate

Run Warren Run has developed the largest on-the-ground infrastructure in Iowa and New Hampshire of any potential presidential campaign or draft effort, with offices i​n the I​owa cities of Cedar Rapids and Des Moines​ and M​anchester, New Hampshire.​This includes:

  • ●  12 full-time staff on the ground organizing across Iowa and New Hampshire;

  • ●  Dozens of volunteers statewide, with identified supporters in all 99 counties in Iowa;

  • ●  More than 100 on-the-ground events organized across both states;

  • ●  The organizing of 27 current or former elected officials in New Hampshire and 19 Iowa leaders in a united call for Elizabeth Warren to run for president;

  • ●  Kick-off events in both states, which featured prominent elected officials including Iowa Senate President Pam Jochum and New Hampshire State Representative Renny Cushing (I​A,​N​H)​.

Aided by local student leaders, Run Warren Run organizers have held house parties, visibility events, teach-ins and rallies calling on Elizabeth Warren to run for president and highlighting her vision for America from reducing student debt and expanding Social Security to stopping job-killing trade deals like the Trans-Pacific Partnership.


A Polling Floor in Second Place and Growing Even Before Warren Becomes an Active Candidate

Senator Warren is the only potential challenger to Secretary Hillary Clinton who is broadly seen as having a credible chance of winning the nomination and general election.​

  • ●  Peter Hart for the Annenberg Public Policy Center, in f​ocus groups of general election voters, found Senator Warren was seen by Democrats, Republicans, and Independents as the most “down to earth” and “knowledgeable” potential presidential candidate. As one participant put it, “If she ran, she could be the next president because she is personable and knowledgeable and has a good handle on what's going on in the country.”

  • ●  YouGov polling data, ​commissioned by Run Warren Run, found Senator Warren's biography and message resonate strongly with general election voters in the critical states of Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.

  • ●  Among Democratic primary voters, a March N​BC/WSJ poll​found that only Senator Warren, Vice President Joe Biden, and Clinton had more respondents open to supporting them than not; with 51% of respondents open to supporting Warren and just 17% saying they could not see themselves backing her, Warren has the most room to grow as voters learn more about her.

  • ●  A separate poll commissioned by Run Warren Run,​with data collection by YouGov, shows that Senator Warren's message and biography resonate tremendously with voters in Iowa and New Hampshire.

  • ●  Even while actively stating that she's not running, Senator Warren has already moved into second place in both Iowa (1​6%)​and New Hampshire (2​2%)​, and her support in polls continues to grow.


Building Power for Warren's Message and Defining the Agenda of the Entire Potential Candidate Field

As reported by the ​Los Angeles Times,​ income inequality, Senator Warren's signature issue fight, has emerged as the central theme of the 2016 election.​ T​here's a growing consensus that “the nascent presidential campaign already has a leading issue: the economy's failure to produce rising incomes for the middle class.” Amplified by the megaphone of the Run Warren Run campaign's nationwide movement, Elizabeth Warren's leadership in the Senate is advancing the key issues that will decide the 2016 election.

  • ●  Immediately following the launch of the Run Warren Run campaign last December, Warren led congressional Democrats in a battle against a budget deal that eviscerated key elements of the Dodd-Frank financial reform legislation designed to prevent the kind of risky derivative trades that wrecked the world financial system in 2008. While Republicans succeeded in passing their budget deal by a slim margin, Warren's leadership flipped dozens of Democrats in both the House and Senate to vote against provisions they had supported only months before by exposing the bad deal and harnessing the substantial national media and grassroots attention created by the launch of the draft campaign.

  • ●  In January, Warren harnessed the draft movement's energy and media again, successfully marshalling grassroots forces and preventing the confirmation of Antonio Weiss, a Wall Street executive, to a key Treasury Department position.

  • ●  In March, Warren continued to harness grassroots and media interest in her potential candidacy in opposition to fast-tracking the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal, making the fight for fair trade a critical, early issue in the 2016 presidential contest. While the Run Warren Run campaign, working in partnership with allies, signed up more than 4,800 Americans to personally drop by their representatives’ offices to oppose fast-track and the TPP, numerous journalists have reported on how Senator Warren’s entry into this fight h​as changed its underlying dynamics​and are asking where other potential presidential candidates stand. Under this media spotlight, potential candidate and former Maryland Gov. M​artin O'Malley recently announced ​that he now also opposes the TPP.

  • ●  The threat of Senator Warren’s possible candidacy and the movement built by Run Warren Run campaign has even dominated the debate among Republican candidates as each struggles to harness the populist anger in the Republican Party. T​ed Cruz, Marco Rubio, and Rand Paul​all agreed, a​t a California presidential forum in January, ​that the “in​creasing gap between rich and poor” is problematic – a far cry from Mitt Romney's 2012 campaign against the 47%. CNN reported from the 2015 Conservative Political Action Conference that Republicans agree with Senator Warren: ​“They want to break up the big banks. They don’t trust Wall Street and bemoan its outsized role in politics. They are worried about the growing gap between the poor and the rich. And they think it’s just a matter of time before the country is hit with another financial crisis.” C​arly Fiorina, ​the former Hewlett-Packard CEO who is actively eyeing a White House run, recently proclaimed: “Elizabeth Warren is right: crony capitalism is alive and well.”​ ​The Los Angeles Times ​ reports: J​eb Bush’s​“Right to Rise political action committee, for example, declares in its mission statement that millions of Americans feel ‘the playing field is no longer fair or level,’ a metaphor also employed by the liberals’ hero Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts.”

In short, this is Senator Warren's moment, proven by the success of her leadership and the fact that every potential candidate — Democrat or Republican – is scrambling to follow her lead.

This Is Senator Warren's Moment

While there are many potential Democratic candidates who could run for president, to date none of them besides Hillary Clinton have crossed the media's credibility threshold — none except Elizabeth Warren.

From the ​Boston Globe:​ “neither declared candidate Jim Webb, a former Virginia senator, nor rumored candidate Martin O'Malley, a former governor of Maryland, represent top-tier opponents; independent Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders has also hinted he might enter the Democratic primaries, but it’s difficult to imagine him thriving on the trail.”

The New Yorker's​ John Cassidy ​echoed that without Warren, Clinton will get to make her case, “with only Martin O'Malley, the former governor of Maryland, Jim Webb, the former Virginia Senator, and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders as potential rivals who have expressed a serious interest in running. While each of these men has policy expertise and a track record, they are still struggling to be taken seriously as Presidential candidates.”

Still 10 months before the Feb. 1 Iowa Caucuses, Senator Warren has time to enter and build a winning campaign.

Based on historical trends,​ ​Bloomberg Politics​ reports the best date for a candidate to enter the presidential race would be June 12, 2015.

In the modern era, credible candidates have entered the race after Labor Day, including Wes Clark (who entered after a much smaller draft effort on September 17, 2003), Bill Clinton (who announced his run in October 1991), and Robert Kennedy (who jumped into the 1968 race a​fter​the New Hampshire primary).

Equally important, the fact that the Run Warren Run campaign is organizing both nationally and in early primary states is allowing Senator Warren more time to decide to run, while we build support and develop critical infrastructure that will allow her to hit the ground running from day one if she enters the race.

The fact is the Run Warren Run campaign has been indispensable and a major success. ​The campaign has mobilized hundreds of thousands of Americans in support of a bold, populist progressive vision and agenda for our country; helped to elevate Senator Warren's already-prominent voice in the national conversation; set the terms of debate for candidates of both parties in the presidential race; and more deeply engaged hundreds of thousands of Americans in the political process, through an organization and movement that will continue to be mobilized to achieve progressive ends through 2016 and beyond.

Looking back at the last 120 days, we’re honored to be a part of the organizing success and tireless dedication of Run Warren Run volunteers in Iowa, New Hampshire and everywhere nationwide, and our focus remains squarely on drafting Elizabeth Warren to run for president — and building the movement she'll need to win.