July 2017 - 128 pages including notes
Table of Contents and Page 1 of the Manuscript

Contents
Preface and Acknowledgements..........................................................................................vii
Republicans Look for a Winner.............................................................................................1
The Evolving Field.................................................................................................................7
Former Texas Gov. Rick Perry...............................................................................................11
Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker........................................................................................17
Former Lousiana Governor Bobby Jindal.............................................................................23
South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham..............................................................................29
Former New York Governor George Pataki...........................................................................33
Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee.........................................................................37
Kentucky Senator Rand Paul................................................................................................41
Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum......................................................................47
New Jersey Governor Chris Christie.....................................................................................51
Former HP CEO Carly Fiorina...............................................................................................57
Former Virginia Governor Jim Gilmore..................................................................................61
Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush.......................................................................................65
Dr. Ben Carson......................................................................................................................71
Florida Senator Marco Rubio................................................................................................77
Texas Senator Ted Cruz........................................................................................................83
Ohio Governor John Kasich..................................................................................................89
Businessman Donald J. Trump.............................................................................................95
Appendix I: Primary and Caucus Results..............................................................................105
Appendix II: Campaign Finance............................................................................................109
Notes.....................................................................................................................................116


Republicans Look for a Winner

Seventeen hopefuls competed for 2016 Republican presidential nomination, each arguing he or she was best suited to take on likely Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton and bring conservative leadership to the country.

THE FIELD OF PLAY
Each presidential campaign occurs in, and is shaped by, a unique historical context. Events, social and economic conditions, cultural tendencies, technology, and rules and laws governing the election process all combine to create a political landscape which may advantage or disadvantage one or another of the candidates. The historical context in which a campaign is waged impacts its substance, pushing various domestic and foreign issues into greater or lesser prominence. Further, since our presidential election campaigns are so long, the terrain can change somewhat even during the course of one election cycle.

Polarization and Dissatisfaction

In recent years the United States has appeared to be an increasingly polarized nation, divided into “red” and “blue.” Partisan bickering and gridlock seem very much the order of the day; dysfunctional government, where ideologues dominate the discourse and moderates are an endangered species, has meant that critical issues ranging from the deficit to infrastructure needs to immigration reform remain unresolved. Dysfunction was on full display during the government shutdown that took place from Oct. 1–17, 2013.

There are many plausible explanations for the polarization. An argument can be made that sharp divisions go right back to the early days of the Republic and that gridlock is built into the system. Another line of reasoning points to the fragmented media universe which now enables citizens to get their news and information primarily or exclusively from ideological sources, contributing to rigid and narrow viewpoints.3

Many argue that big money is distorting our democratic system. The professionalization of politics, from the proliferation of lobbyists to the ubiquitous role of consultants to the attack ads and mailers to the widespread use of polls, may be jamming the works. Sophisticated redistricting practices have led to fewer competitive districts in Congress and state legislatures, reducing the number of moderate voices.

Numerous ideas have been put forth to reform Congress and bring the institution into the 21st century, ranging from biennial budgeting to more interparty communication. Another diagnosis comes from Philip K. Howard, author of The Rule of Nobody, who argues, “Rules have replaced leadership in America. Bureaucracy, regulation, and outmoded law tie our hands and confine policy choices.” Howard calls for sunseting and simplification of laws to restore responsibility.4 Roots of divisiveness can also be traced to the battle over Florida following the 2000 presidential campaign, the Clinton-Lewinsky scandal and even Watergate. Ultimately, much as our nation’s monuments need to be refurbished from time to time, so too thought must be given to updating and modernizing our democratic institutions.

Evidence of dissatisfaction is clear. In recent decades voters increasingly are chosing to register as independents or non-affiliated rather than align with the two major political parties (see political parties). Turnout in primaries is shockingly low. Survey after survey shows the low regard citizens hold for Congress. The Tea Party movement which began in 2009 and the Occupy...