- November 2016
« Final Jobs Report Before Election Day, Nov. 8, 2016
Ed. Note - See below for responses from the White House, Democrats, and Republicans...
Bureau of Labor Statistics
November 4, 2016
Employment Situation Summary
8:30 a.m. (EDT) Friday, November 4, 2016
Household data: (202) 691-6378 * email@example.com * www.bls.gov/cps
Establishment data: (202) 691-6555 * firstname.lastname@example.org * www.bls.gov/ces
Media contact: (202) 691-5902 * PressOffice@bls.gov
THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- OCTOBER 2016
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 161,000 in October, and the unemployment rate
was little changed at 4.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
Employment continued to trend up in health care, professional and business services,
and financial activities.
Hurricane Matthew affected parts of the East Coast during the October reference
periods for the establishment and household surveys. For information on how
severe weather can affect employment and hours data, see Question 8 in the
Frequently Asked Questions section of this news release.
Household Survey Data
The unemployment rate, at 4.9 percent, and the number of unemployed persons, at 7.8
million, changed little in October. Both measures have shown little movement, on net,
since August 2015. (See table A-1.)
Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for Hispanics declined to 5.7
percent in October, while the rates for adult men (4.6 percent), adult women (4.3
percent), teenagers (15.6 percent), Whites (4.3 percent), Blacks (8.6 percent), and
Asians (3.4 percent) showed little change. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)
The number of job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs declined by 218,000
over the month to 3.7 million. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27
weeks or more) was unchanged at 2.0 million in October and accounted for 25.2 percent
of the unemployed. (See tables A-11 and A-12.)
In October, both the labor force participation rate, at 62.8 percent, and the
employment-population ratio, at 59.7 percent, changed little. These measures have
shown little movement in recent months, although both are up over the year. (See
The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (also referred to as
involuntary part-time workers) was unchanged in October at 5.9 million. These
individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time
because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time
job. (See table A-8.)
In October, 1.7 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, down by
216,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals
were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a
job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they
had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. (See table A-16.)
Among the marginally attached, there were 487,000 discouraged workers in October, down
by 178,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged
workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are
available for them. The remaining 1.2 million persons marginally attached to the labor
force in October had not searched for work for reasons such as school attendance or
family responsibilities. (See table A-16.)
Establishment Survey Data
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 161,000 in October. Thus far in 2016,
employment growth has averaged 181,000 per month, compared with an average monthly
increase of 229,000 in 2015. In October, employment continued to trend up in health
care, professional and business services, and financial activities. (See table B-1.)
Health care employment rose by 31,000 in October. Within the industry, employment growth
occurred in ambulatory health care services (+19,000) and hospitals (+13,000). Over the
past 12 months, health care has added 415,000 jobs.
Employment in professional and business services continued to trend up in October
(+43,000) and has risen by 542,000 over the year. Over the month, a job gain occurred
in computer systems design and related services (+8,000). Employment in management and
technical consulting services continued to trend up (+5,000).
In October, employment in financial activities continued on an upward trend (+14,000),
with a gain in insurance carriers and related activities (+8,000).
Employment in other major industries, including mining, construction, manufacturing,
wholesale trade, retail trade, transportation and warehousing, information, leisure and
hospitality, and government, changed little over the month.
The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at
34.4 hours in October. In manufacturing, the workweek edged up by 0.1 hour to 40.8 hours,
while overtime was unchanged at 3.3 hours. The average workweek for production and
nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 33.6 hours. (See
tables B-2 and B-7.)
In October, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose
by 10 cents to $25.92, following an 8-cent increase in September. Over the year, average
hourly earnings have risen by 2.8 percent. Average hourly earnings of private-sector
production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 4 cents to $21.72 in October. (See
tables B-3 and B-8.)
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August was revised up from +167,000
to +176,000, and the change for September was revised up from +156,000 to +191,000. With
these revisions, employment gains in August and September combined were 44,000 more than
previously reported. Over the past 3 months, job gains have averaged 176,000 per month.
The Employment Situation for November is scheduled to be released on Friday,
December 2, 2016, at 8:30 a.m. (EST).
Statement on the Employment Situation in October
WASHINGTON, DC – Jason Furman, Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, issued the following statement today on the employment situation in October. You can view the statement HERE.
Posted by Jason Furman on November 4, 2016 at 9:30AM ET.
Summary: The economy added 161,000 jobs in October and over the past year has seen the fastest annual wage growth since the end of the recession.
The economy added 161,000 jobs in October—well above the pace needed to maintain a low and stable unemployment rate—as the longest streak of total job growth on record continued. U.S. businesses have now added 15.5 million jobs since early 2010. Most importantly, average hourly earnings for private employees increased 2.8 percent over the last twelve months, the fastest twelve-month pace since the recovery began and much faster than the pace of inflation. In fact, real wages have grown faster over the current business cycle than in any since the early 1970s. Nevertheless, more work remains to continue to boost wage growth and to ensure that the benefits of the recovery are broadly shared, including increasing investment in infrastructure; implementing the high-standards Trans-Pacific Partnership; taking steps to spur competition to benefit consumers, workers, and entrepreneurs; and raising the minimum wage.
FIVE KEY POINTS ON THE LABOR MARKET IN OCTOBER 2016
1. U.S. businesses have now added 15.5 million jobs since private-sector job growth turned positive in early 2010. Today, we learned that private employment rose by 142,000 jobs in October. Total nonfarm employment rose by 161,000 jobs, slightly below the monthly average for 2016 so far but substantially higher than the pace of about 80,000 jobs per month that CEA estimates is necessary to maintain a low and stable unemployment rate given the impact of demographic trends on labor force participation. Total job growth for August and September was revised up by a combined 44,000 jobs.
The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.9 percent in October, while the labor force participation rate ticked down to 62.8 percent—the same rate as in October 2013 despite downward pressure on participation from demographic trends. The U-6 rate, the broadest official measure of labor underutilization (and the only one still elevated relative to its pre-recession average) fell 0.2 percentage point in October. So far in 2016, nominal earnings for private-sector workers have increased at an annual rate of 3.1 percent, much faster than the pace of inflation (1.7 percent as of September, the most recent data available).
2. Average hourly earnings for all private workers increased 2.8 percent over the past year, the fastest twelve-month pace since the end of the recession. As the chart below shows, nominal wage growth has trended up over the course of the recovery as the labor market has continued to strengthen amid robust job growth. While inflation has picked up in recent months, nominal earnings have also continued to grow considerably faster than inflation, translating into sustained real wage gains for American workers. Real hourly wages have grown faster over the current business cycle than in any cycle since the early 1970s. Since the end of 2012, real wages have grown around 20 times faster than their pace of growth between the business cycle peak in 1980 and the business cycle peak in 2007, a sign of the considerable progress made by American families in the current recovery.
3. Amid rising real wages, the share of income going to labor has increased since 2014, though recent gains have not fully reversed a longer-run downward trend that may be partly due to decreased bargaining power for workers. The labor share of income reflects the portion of total economic output that is remitted to workers in the form of compensation. Changes in the labor share thus reflect changes in the relationship between workers’ productivity (the average real output produced by a worker in an hour) and their real hourly compensation. Recent increases in real wages have led to real compensation growth in excess of productivity growth, which has slowed across all major advanced economies in recent years. From the fourth quarter of 2012 to the third quarter of 2016, labor productivity in the nonfarm business sector has increased at a 0.7-percent annual rate, compared to an average annual increase of 1.0 percent in real compensation over the same period. Instead of coming fully out of additional output, this increase in real compensation has come partly out of profits, and, in part as a result, the share of income accruing to labor has been rising since mid-2014. Nevertheless, the labor share of income remains appreciably lower today than in 2000. While there are likely a number of reasons for this decline, a recent CEA issue brief discusses one possible cause: a general shift in bargaining power away from workers towards firms and an increase in employers exercising monopsony power (or market power sufficient for a buyer to set its own price) in the labor market.
4. Over the course of the recovery, unemployment rates for veterans have fallen dramatically, but post-9/11 veterans still face particular challenges. Since its peak, the unemployment rate for veterans has been cut by more than half; however, this rate masks substantial variation in labor market experiences depending on veterans’ period of service. Veterans who served after September 11, 2001 saw much larger (and more sustained) increases in unemployment during the recession than other veterans, but have seen their unemployment rate fall by more than half over the course of the recovery. In October, the twelve-month moving average of the unemployment rate for post-9/11 veterans was just slightly higher than the twelve-month moving average of the unemployment rate for nonveterans. However, because veterans and nonveterans tend to differ substantially across demographic characteristics that may affect their likelihood of employment (such as age and educational attainment), it is important to compare unemployment rates for veterans and nonveterans who are demographically similar. As the chart below shows, while the unemployment rate for post-9/11 veterans has decreased more quickly than for comparable nonveterans, it remains somewhat higher, reflecting the particular challenges that post-9/11 veterans have faced.
A key part of the Administration’s success in reducing veteran unemployment has been to protect the benefits earned by service members and veterans with programs like the Tuition Assistance Program and the Post-9/11 GI Bill. In 2011, First Lady Michelle Obama and Dr. Jill Biden launched Joining Forces, a nationwide initiative to support service members, veterans, and their families. Through Joining Forces, more than 50 companies have pledged to hire more than 110,000 veterans and military spouses over the next five years. As Veterans Day approaches on November 11, the Administration will take further steps to make sure veterans can get the most out of the education benefits that they have earned and to help veterans gain the skills and training that they need to succeed in the civilian workforce.
5. The distribution of job growth across industries in October was broadly consistent with the pattern over the past year. Above-average gains relative to the past year were seen in Federal government employment (+12,000), while mining and logging (which includes oil extraction) posted a smaller loss (-2,000) than in recent months amid moderation in oil prices. On the other hand, retail trade (-1,000) saw weaker-than-average growth. Slow global growth has continued to weigh on the manufacturing sector, which is more export-oriented than other industries and which posted a loss of 9,000 jobs in October. Across the 17 industries shown below, the correlation between the most recent one-month percent change and the average percent change over the last twelve months was 0.75, similar to the average correlation over the last two years.
As the Administration stresses every month, the monthly employment and unemployment figures can be volatile, and payroll employment estimates can be subject to substantial revision. Therefore, it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report, and it is informative to consider each report in the context of other data as they become available.
Democratic National Committee
Wage Growth Surges in October with Strong Jobs Report
Republican National Committee
RNC Statement On October Jobs Report
Disastrous Jobs Report Underscores the Total Failures of the Obama-Clinton Economy
"This disastrous jobs report underscores
the total failures of the
Obama-Clinton economy that delivers only for donors and special
interests and robs working families. President Obama is the first
President in modern history not to have a single year of three percent
growth. Nearly half a million people left the workforce last month, a
painful and massive decline. Over 14 million have left the workforce
since Obama came into office, bringing the total not working to 94
"Nearly a quarter of people in the prime working years are not employed.
"Forty-three percent of young African Americans live in poverty and 32 percent of young Hispanic Americans lives in poverty.
"There are 40,000 homeless veterans.
"Workers are earning less in cash wages than in 1973.
"Our national debt has doubled.
"But Hillary Clinton went from dead broke to worth more than 200 million selling her office to donors, foreign powers and global financial interests -- and is now under criminal investigation for doing so. Hillary got rich bleeding America dry.
"Donald Trump has a contract with the American voter to end government corruption, create 25 million new jobs, raise wages and incomes, and make America safe for all of our citizens.
"In four days, voters will get the chance to vote to take power back from the special interests and return it to the people." - Stephen Miller, National Policy Director
THE OBAMA ECONOMIC DISASTER
Today’s jobs report makes it official:
since Barack Obama took
office in January, 2009, more people have gone on food stamps (11.4
million) than have found a job (less than 10 million). This is the
tragedy of our times.
Since President Obama became president, the number of people not participating in the labor force has grown by 14 million. Over 23 million Americans in their prime-earning years [ages 25-54] are not in the labor force – an increase of almost 2 million since President Obama took office. 1 in 5 American households do not have a single family member in the labor force.
The increase in the number of Americans not in the labor force drives a decrease in the official unemployment rate. But since the last recession ended in June, 2009, the labor force participation rate among prime working age adults (25-54 years old) has declined, and remains near lows not seen in over thirty years. In a vibrant, growing economy, the labor participation rate would be going up or holding while the unemployment rate goes down.
The economy has produced too few jobs to keep up with population growth. Since the recession ended, the number of people working has increased by 11.9 million, but the employable population has grown by 18.7 million. At a minimum, the increase in the number of people employed should keep pace with the employable population—but it clearly has not under current policies. Instead, people become discouraged and leave the labor force.
Many are dropping out of the labor force because they cannot find good paying jobs in an economy operating near stall speed. Real GDP has grown by only 1.5 percent over the past year – a rate below even the already anemic 2.1 percent average rate of the Obama recovery. On a per capita basis, growth over the past year is near zero at only 0.7 percent. Real hourly and weekly earnings are lower today than they were in 1973 because there are not enough jobs so wages are not rising.
The combination of slow economic growth and increased government spending has produced massive deficits. It took over 230 years for the US to run up $10 trillion of debt. Barack Obama doubled that in less than eight. All we have to show for this massive fiscal stimulus is 47 million Americans in poverty, 45 million Americans on food stamps, and two million fewer prime working age adults (25-54 years old) employed than before the recession.
Hillary Clinton’s policies would slow the already-slow growth that made Barack Obama the only president in modern history to preside over an economy that did not have a single year that reached 3 percent economic growth. She will raise taxes massively, increase regulations, impose the Trans-Pacific Partnership and open our borders. Her policies will not improve economic conditions.
Donald Trump’s Contract With the American Voter will provide comprehensive tax, trade, regulatory, and energy policies that will put America and American workers first. This plan will double our growth rate, create 25 million jobs, generate trillions of dollars in additional wealth and tax revenues, and Make America Great Again.
A deeper look at the jobs report please