March 5, 2016
 

TO: Interested Parties

FROM: John Weaver, Chief Strategist

RE: Nomination Runs Through Ohio

 

Our campaign strategy was built knowing that the nominating calendar is frontloaded to benefit the other candidates in the race while it shifts more and more toward a Kasich candidacy the deeper we go into it. Despite multiple failed attempts by the political pundits to predict who will become the nominee or the top Trump alternative, our campaign plan is working.
 

No candidate is currently on track to win the nomination outright. Our campaign is built for the long-term, it is growing in strength and it will ensure Governor Kasich is the candidate best positioned to arrive in Cleveland and exit as the nominee.
 

After winning the Detroit debate, we are seeing our best fundraising numbers since the days immediately following New Hampshire and exceeded our vote and delegate goals in the results posted tonight. Most notably, after this weekend, the map begins to turn in our favor.
 

Here’s our path:
 

- Governor Kasich added a better than expected number of delegates tonight in Maine, Kentucky and, surprisingly, Kansas.
 

- There is limited polling information available for the March 8 contests, but we expect the current state of the race to largely continue through these races, with some additional positive movement for Governor Kasich.
 

- The major inflection point is March 15.
 

- On March 15, Governor Kasich will win Ohio, picking up all 66 delegates and it will be clear who the best candidate is to go one-on-one against Trump in the remaining contests. Besides Florida, no other states on March 15 are winner take all.
 

- After March 15, more than 1,000 delegates will still be available, and the electoral map shifts significantly in our favor, with the delegate-rich states fitting Governor Kasich’s profile.
 

- After March 15, states that will still have contests include: Arizona (58 delegates), Utah (40 delegates), North Dakota (28 delegates) Wisconsin (42 delegates), New York (95 delegates), Colorado (37 delegates), Connecticut (28 delegates), Delaware (16 delegates), Maryland (38 delegates), Pennsylvania (71 delegates), Rhode Island (19 delegates), Indiana (57 delegates), West Virginia (34 delegates), Oregon (28 delegates), Washington (44 delegates), California (172 delegates), Nebraska (36 delegates), Montana (27 delegates) New Jersey (51 delegates), New Mexico (24 delegates) and South Dakota (29 delegates). Ted Cruz doesn’t play in the vast majority of these states. John Kasich does.
 

Bottom Line: Ted Cruz needed to get more delegates out of the southeast and caucus states than he was able to get, and his path is closing.  The Marco Rubio hype machine is winding down and his bubble will completely pop on March 15 in Florida if he doesn’t win. Governor Kasich must win in Ohio to stop Trump, and when he wins Ohio, Kasich clearly becomes the top non-Trump Republican.