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April 20, 2016

 

To: Interested Parties

From: John Weaver, Chief Strategist, Kasich For America

Re: The #NeverTrump Strategy for MD, CT, RI, DE and PA

 

The #NeverTrump movement missed opportunities to take delegates away from Donald Trump in more than half a dozen New York congressional districts last night by not engaging in any serious ways.

 

A repeat effort by #NeverTrump forces on April 26 would put Donald Trump on track to win the nomination on the first ballot.

 

 

Here’s how Trump can still be stopped:

 

 

Maryland

 

Maryland allocates delegates on a winner-take-all basis statewide and by congressional district. Recent public polling shows Trump leading statewide, but Gov. Kasich is sitting in a strong second place, far ahead of Ted Cruz.

 

Our data show that Trump could lose to Kasich in almost any district but MD-1. He is particularly vulnerable in MD-4 and MD-8 as well as MD-2, MD-3, MD-5, MD-6 and MD-7.

 

A serious effort in Maryland could cut the number of delegates Trump can win by almost half.

 

 

Connecticut

 

Connecticut is winner-take-all by congressional district and proportional over 20% statewide if no candidate reaches 50%. Current public polling has Trump at 49% statewide with John Kasich showing a strong second place. Internal data show Kasich can top Trump in CT-1, CT-2, CT-4 and CT-5.

 

Keeping Trump under 50% statewide is critical. A serious #NeverTrump effort in Connecticut could cost Trump close to half the delegates here too.

 

 

Rhode Island

 

Rhode Island is proportional with a 10% threshold both statewide and by congressional district. Keeping Trump’s margins down could cost him at least half a dozen delegates.

 

 

Delaware

 

Delaware will award all 16 of its delegates if a candidate receives a plurality of the vote. We expect Trump to have a strong chance of finishing above 50% and would recommend spending resources on the other April 26th states.

 

 

Pennsylvania

 

Seventeen of Pennsylvania’s delegates are bound to the winner, who we expect to again be Donald Trump. The remaining 54 are unbound but assigned by congressional districts. We expect to be competitive, but more importantly, we’re focused on supporting delegate candidates who will work at the convention to nominate the most electable candidate in the fall.

 

 

Bottom-line: Donald Trump’s win in New York got him closer to 1,237 delegates and if the #StopTrump movement is serious about stopping him, they should follow this roadmap leading up to the Tuesday, April 26th primaries.



also on April 20, 2016 this from the Democratic National Committee

  ·         177 and counting – the number of days John Kasich has spent outside of Ohio neglecting his day job since he announced his candidacy.

·         $350,000+ – the amount of Ohio taxpayer money spent on his presidential run.

·         147 – the delegates John Kasich has won in the 2016 presidential primary.

·         24 – the number of delegates Kasich still has to win to match Marco Rubio… even though Rubio dropped out over a month ago.

·         3 – the number of delegates Kasich secured last night in New York, compared to Trump’s 89.

·         35 – the number of days Kasich went since the Ohio primary without winning a single delegate.

·         162% – the percentage of remaining delegates Kasich would have to win to secure the nomination. For you non-math majors out there, that’s mathematically impossible.

·         0 – the number of reasons why Kasich should still be in the race.