FROM: Rob Simms, NRCC Executive Director

TO: Interested Parties

SUBJECT: One Year Out

We are 52 weeks from Election Day 2016 and the stakes could not be higher. Voters are frustrated — even angry — with the direction President Obama has led the country and are desperate to move our country in the right direction.
 
As the presidential election kicks into high gear, Hillary Clinton is being dragged to the left as she tries to keep up with self-proclaimed socialist, Bernie Sanders, and his ultra-liberal policies. As both candidates continue their fight on the presidential stage, the American people are seeing a Democratic Party that is embracing an agenda that resonates with only the most liberal of voters.
 
Republicans, however, continue to focus on solutions that will improve the lives of everyday Americans. As our economy continues to struggle, we are also faced with a constant threat of instability in the Middle East, and an aggressive and unpredictable Russia. While many issues will arise throughout the next year, our national defense will remain a top priority.
 
Whether it is President Obama’s dangerous Iran deal, his veto of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), or the Democrats’ constant refusal to prioritize our national defense, it is not hard to see the pieces of the puzzle coming together: the Democratic agenda is weakening our nation while Republicans are driving to strengthen America.
 
Now as Democrats look towards 2016, they are plagued with congressional infighting as members try to impose term-limits on each other as a way to rejuvenate their ranks. In a Nancy Pelosi led caucus in which members are willing to kick their own members out of office, House Democrats will continue to have a difficult time recruiting new members this cycle.
 
The next year undoubtedly holds many opportunities and challenges as Republicans look to not only maintain and grow our House majority but also win back the White House.
 
I am confident in our outlook.
 
A HISTORIC MAJORITY
Our historic Republican majority is in a strong position going into 2016. Members of our Patriot Program are working hard and their efforts are showing. On average, our Patriots have $861,632 cash on hand while their Democratic challengers average about $301,003. An overwhelming majority of our Patriots’ races are listed as “Leaning Republican” or “Likely Republican” in both Cook Political Report and Rothenberg and Gonzales Political Report, reflecting their hard work on behalf of their constituents and preparation for next year’s election.

DISTRICT POLLING
Our Patriots have put in the necessary hard work early this cycle and are ensuring they are well positioned to run strong campaigns next year. Their efforts help explain the results of recent surveys conducted by Harper Polling, showing many of them running strong in competitive districts.

Here are some themes we have seen from across the country:
·         Republican incumbents are in a strong position for reelection in 2016
·         If the election were held today, voters would prefer the Republican incumbent to challenger candidates
·         Hillary Clinton coat-tails? She continues to have a low favorability rating with voters 
·         An overwhelming majority of voters believe the country is going down the wrong track
 
Now a look at specific districts:
·         AZ-02: Congresswoman Martha McSally is well positioned for reelection. She is seen favorably by both men and women with an overall favorability rating of 55%—strong for a Republican in a district with a 3% disadvantage on the generic ballot. 58% of voters also approve of the job Congresswoman McSally has done since being elected. 
 
·         IL-12: Congressman Mike Bost sits at a good position with 51% of voters favoring him over the Democrat challenger. Additionally, 53% of IL-12 voters view Hillary Clinton unfavorably, eliminating the hopes of down ballot momentum for Democrats.
 
·         MI-07: Congressman Tim Walberg is in a good position for reelection, leading his Democratic challenger by 17 points.  He also has an impressive 50% favorability rating.  In this district, there is an overwhelming 70% of voters who believe the country is on the wrong track. Hillary Clinton is seen as part of the problem, with 57% viewing her unfavorably and 47% viewing her very unfavorably.
 
·         NY-21: Congresswoman Elise Stefanik has a strong 55% favorability rating. Voters do not see Hillary Clinton as the solution, with 60% having an unfavorable view and 45% with a very unfavorable view.
 
·         NY-24: Congressman John Katko holds a strong position in the district with a 55% favorability rating and 59% approving of the way Katko is handling his job. Here, 51% of those polled have an unfavorable view of Hillary Clinton.
 
·         VA-10: Congresswoman Barbara Comstock has a 51% job approval rating and 49% would reelect her if the election were held today. Hillary Clinton will find this to be a challenging district with an overwhelming 56% viewing her unfavorably and 46% viewing her very unfavorably.
STAYING ON OFFENSE
Even though Republicans hold an historic number of seats, we will continue playing offense in 2016. Below are just a handful of pickup opportunities, and there are plenty more out there.
·         AZ-01: This district voted for the GOP presidential nominee the last 3 cycles and favors the GOP down ballot. With Ann Kirkpatrick running for Senate, Democrats have lost the advantage of incumbency.
 
·         FL-02: This is a Republican District that is likely to get much more Republican after redistricting, giving Graham a tremendous uphill climb toward reelection. With higher Republican turnout during presidential years, Graham could abandon FL-02 and jump in the race for Senate or focus on a 2018 race for governor.
 
·         FL-18: This is an open seat traditionally held by Republicans, and Democrats have fielded a weak slate of candidates.  We expect the Republican presidential candidates to drive up Republican turnout in the general election.
 
·         MN-08: Rick Nolan is far too liberal for this competitive district. Stewart Mills, who came within 1.4% of beating Nolan last year, faces no primary opposition and will hit the ground running.
 
·         NE-02: This is a heavily Republican District that Brad Ashford simply does not fit. Ashford is not fundraising to meet the challenges of his reelection and will be dragged down by the top of the ticket.

GOING FORWARD
52 weeks from Election Day, Republicans are in a strong position to not only maintain our historic majority but continue to strengthen it even further.
Voters spoke out against Democrats and their liberal agenda last cycle and continue to show Obama and Clinton fatigue – just look at last week’s election in Kentucky that saw a Republican elected governor for only the second time in 44 years. Additionally, as Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders fight to appeal to liberal primary voters, Democrats will be forced to defend these policies back home in competitive districts.
 
We have a diverse freshman class of hardworking Republican members and many strong recruits across the country that will continue to champion the Republican values that helped us achieve our historic majority.
 
We will keep driving to strengthen America and create an even stronger Republican House majority. Nancy Pelosi has made it clear that winning back the House is a top priority. We must keep working to bring about change in Washington and move our country forward, improving the lives of all Americans and ensuring Nancy Pelosi is never speaker again.