- Rand Paul «
October 15, 2015 Memo from the Campaign
MEMO: Rand Paul for President Campaign Standing
WASHINGTON, D.C.
- In case you missed it, the Rand Paul for President Campaign released
a memo outlining the campaign's standing. A copy of this memo can be
found below.
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Memorandum
To:
Interested
Parties
From: Doug Stafford,
Chief Strategist
Chip
Englander,
Campaign Manager
Re:
Summary
of
Campaign Standing
Date:
October
15,
2015
There are some in the media who are pushing a false narrative that
Senator Rand Paul (SRP) is on the ropes.
Here are the facts and why SRP is here to stay.
Political Organization
Ground game and political organization have a
disproportionate impact in primaries and especially caucuses - and SRP
has the best organization in America.
Three times SRP has competed against the other contenders in
presidential straw polls - and every time he has won. He won at the
Conservative Political Action Conference, the same straw poll Reagan
won that helped launch his 1980 candidacy. He won at the Republican
Leadership Conference, the largest straw poll in America. And he won
this past weekend at the largest New Hampshire straw poll. At all of
these straw polls, other contenders competed, paid for supporters, and
went in to win it. Each time they failed.
In New Hampshire, where SRP won over the weekend, our
organization has a statewide Leadership Team of over 300 members-nearly
triple the size of our closest rival. This well-respected team of
veteran grassroots organizers were the catalyst of this weekend's win
and will be vital to future victories.
SRP's strength in New Hampshire comes from his continued
legwork in the state. He's been there more than most of the candidates.
He was there last weekend, he will be there next weekend, and he will
be there a third time at the end of this month. Like John McCain in
2008, Senator Paul's campaign isn't showing up in October polling, but
will be there when it counts-on Election Day.
Our campaign is similarly well-positioned in Iowa. SRP has
already announced co-chairs in each of Iowa's 99 counties and has 600
precinct captains that are actively recruiting supporters and
volunteers. This team has been able to call over 100,000 voters in the
past few weeks alone.
Like New Hampshire, our Iowa team provides the backbone of
the ground force needed to win a trench warfare campaign. As
demonstrated in both parties' campaigns for President, to win in Iowa,
a strong ground force, not money, is the true game changer. In 2012,
Rick Santorum was vastly outspent by Mitt Romney, yet he won Iowa. In
2008, Mike Huckabee was vastly outspent and won Iowa. In 2004, Democrat
Howard Dean had all the money and resources, but John Kerry's in-state
volunteer force propelled him to the top. That's how Iowa campaigns are
won-through the hard work of motivated, well-organized, and passionate
grassroots supporters.
SRP is also making a historic effort to build a
Students for Rand organization that will play heavily in Iowa and
change the way Republicans treat the youth vote. Nationally, the
organization established over 350 chapters since launch. Students make
the calls and walk the doors. They also give the campaign the ability
to organize cheaply in later states.
And in Iowa, Students for Rand will have a huge impact.
In 2012, 121,000 Iowans participated in their Republican
caucus. In 2008, 119,000 Iowans participated in their Republican
caucus. Although Iowa is not one of the most populous states in
the
country, large schools such as the University of Iowa and Iowa State
University are part of a student population of over 120,000.
Yet this sizable student population factored little in the last
two Iowa caucuses because they occurred during winter break on January
3. Due to a change in RNC rules, the 2016 caucuses
will occur on February 1 when school is in session. With 120,000 voters
and over 120,000 students, students are set to dominate the caucuses in
an unprecedented way and we are set to dominate this demographic.
While the media fixates on ad buys and fundraising, we are
the only campaign organizing on campuses. For example, when the
University of Iowa kicked off back-to-school week we were the only
campaign tabling and signing people up. There are twenty Students
for
Rand chapters across Iowa. Every campus event sees hundreds, if not
thousands, of excited students ready to stand with Rand. Just this
week, SRP crisscrossed Iowa as part of an
11-campus barnstorm, hitting schools in every corner of the state,
signing up hundreds of caucus attendees and volunteers at every stop.
You will not see this student advantage show-up in polls,
but you will see it show-up in elections-just like the straw polls we
keep winning.
Debates, Polls, and Fundraising
The media can be forgiven for not grasping the significance
of the ground organization we are building because it is not highly
visible except on the few occasions we mobilize (and win). Some
reporters have covered the fact that SRP always comes in first when
people are actually voting, although most have ignored it altogether.
What makes less sense, though, is that the media plays up
any drop in the polls SRP experiences, while ignoring his momentum and
the precipitous decline of other candidates.
Since the last debate, SRP has moved up three spots in the polls.
The
two most recent polls determining who makes the next debate-conducted
by CBS and Fox-had SRP outpolling Christie and Kasich. SRP is well
within the criteria for the next debate-no question, he will be on the
stage. Moreover, earlier this month Reuters-which
independent analysts called the most accurate pollster of the last
presidential election-had SRP in fifth place ahead of Rubio, Cruz, and
others.
Although the criteria to make the cut for the next debate
requires a 2.5% average in the polls, you never read anything about
Christie, who currently sits at 1.9% in the RCP average of polls. The
media is fixated on insisting that SRP should get out of the race even
though he continues to win every time votes are counted and the polls
show him on the rise.
The timing of the next two debates gives SRP an advantage
because viewers will be able to decide the narrative for
themselves.
While each of the first three debates experienced 5-6 week breaks
between them, the next two debates are separated by only 13 days - a
significant opportunity for SRP to have some repetition before voters
for the first time.
This gives SRP the opportunity to further build on his
recent momentum following the Reagan Library debate. Two of the three
straw polls SRP has won have come since the debate, and SRP raised
nearly a million dollars in the final twelve days after the last
debate.
SRP currently has over $2 million cash-on-hand and is
running a lean campaign heavy on organization and light on expensive
advertising. SRP has the financial resources to continue
indefinitely
and will keep racking up wins once the voting begins.
If you were SRP - with $2 million, little overhead, the best
organization in America, always on the debate stage, and you were
winning 100% of the time votes were counted - would you bet you're
closer to dropping out or that you were nearing a breakthrough? We bet
on breakthrough-and the continued passion and dedication of our team to
fight for Senator Paul's vision of liberty, opportunity and justice for
all Americans is what will bring us success when it actually counts -
on Election Day.
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