Republicans Look for a Gain of Six to Eight Seats in the U.S. House ... >
March 11, 2014 - Speaking at a National Press Club Newsmaker event, U.S. Rep. Greg Walden (R-OR), chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), said that while it is still early, Republicans are looking for a gain of six to eight seats in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2014 mid-term elections.  [Republicans currently hold a 232 to 199 advantage, with four vacancies].  Walden said 30 to 40 seats are in play, and he pointed to The Cook Political Report which identifies 15 toss up seats [of which 11 are Democratic seats].

Walden highlighted seven "red zone" seats won by Republican presidential nominees George W. Bush in 2004, John McCain in 2008 and Mitt Romney in 2012 but held by Democratic House members.  Walden noted that two of those seven Democrats – Reps. Jim Matheson (UT-4) and Mike McIntyre (NC-7) – are retiring (have opted to "leave rather than lose").  The other five are Reps. John Barrow (GA-12), Ann Kirkpatrick (AZ-1), Ron Barber (AZ-2), Nick Rahall (WV-3) and Collin Peterson (MN-7).  In Arizona's 1st CD for example, Barber, faces a re-match against Martha McSally (R) whom he beat by less than one-percent in 2012.  

Walden spoke about today's special election in Florida's 13th CD, where David Jolly (R) and Alex Sink (D), as well as Lucas Overby (L), are vying to succeed the late Rep. Bill Young (R).  He said it was a "very, very difficult seat for Republicans to hold" but said he is "pleased with where we are at."  He said that neither of the party committees likes special elections, but they do allow the committees to test messages, strategies and theories on voter turnout and ID.

Walden commented on fundraising.  In 2013 the DCCC outraised the NRCC by $15 million; he attributed this to President Obama doing seven events for the DCCC last year and to the DCCC's strong online fundraising program.  He said the NRCC achieved an 11-percent improvement in fundraising compared to 2011 and is catching up in online fundraising.  He also noted the NRCC's annual March dinner is coming up [March 26], the dinner will feature former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, former Gov. Mike Huckabee will address the luncheon, and there will be a surprise guest as well.

Walden also talked about the role of data.  In past, he said, the RNC has essentially served as a big water tank on a hill; it is full of data but the problem has been that there is only a small hose coming from the tank.  Using this data, in August and September, the NRCC has typically produced vote total goals for candidates.  Now, Walden said, the NRCC is working with "very rich data" for an increasing number of districts, allowing it to consider various permutations, developing turnout models and weighing motivational factors.  The committee's polling has improved, using live connects with cell phones, and the NRCC requires bilingual call centers in districts with significant Hispanic populations. 
Walden, who was elected NRCC chair in Nov. 2012, represents Oregon's 2nd CD, which encompasses 20 counties covering the eastern two-thirds of the state; the district is bigger than any state east of the Mississippi River.  He was elected to Congress in Nov. 1998.
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