To: Interested Parties
From: Evan Lukaske
Re: Donald Trump will drag down NH Republicans this November
Date: May 5, 2016

With Donald Trump's emergence as the Republican Nominee, New Hampshire Republicans will surely spend the next six months trying to spin the effects of a Trump candidacy on their gubernatorial candidates, Senator Kelly Ayotte and the rest of their down ballot candidates.

Unfortunately for the NH GOP, the numbers don’t lie.
  1. The decline of split ticket voting has increased the effect the top of the ticket has on down ballot candidates. Ticket splitting in federal races bottomed out in 2012, when one in five voters split their tickets between parties. In 1984 and 1988, over half did.
  2. Trump is getting crushed by the potential Democratic nominees. A recent WMUR Granite State Poll showed Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders crushing Trump in New Hampshire by double digits in a general election. Clinton led by 19…Sanders by 27. The same poll found Trump’s favorable rating at 21 percent unfavorable compared to 75 percent unfavorable—a net negative of 54 points.
  3. Seven in ten women hold unfavorable opinions of Trump. Despite the 2013 Republican autopsy acknowledging that the GOP "must improve its efforts to include female voters” to be successful, Trump has alienated women in record numbers, with statements ranging from saying women who get abortions should be “punished” to claiming Hillary Clinton is playing “the woman card.”
  4. The Republican Party is viewed more negatively than at any other point in the past 24 years. 62% of the public has an unfavorable view of the GOP. The last time it was that low? 1992.
  5. Trump performs historically badly with young people…even Republicans. A recent poll found 74% of young people held unfavorable views of Trump, including 57% of young Republicans.
And despite these terrible numbers, and RGA Finance Chairman Fred Malek’s comments that a “Trump nomination could imperil his party’s chances…in New Hampshire,” the Republican gubernatorial candidates are marching in lockstep with Trump and his policies.
Chris SununuTed Gatsas and Jeanie Forrester have publicly said they’ll support him and it’s no surprise—they share his belief that Planned Parenthood should be defunded and they consistently oppose investment in renewable energy. On healthcare, Trump wants to defund Medicaid expansion and the Republican candidates agree. Chris Sununu, Jeanie Forrester and Frank Edelblut have all voted to either block or defund Medicaid expansion in New Hampshire. It’s why the NHDP has reserved over $2 million in post primary airtime for the gubernatorial race.
Senator Ayotte has also committed to support Trump and shares many of his extreme policies as well. She’s obstructing the Supreme Court confirmation process, she's voted to defund Planned Parenthood six times, voted to repeal New Hampshire’s Medicaid expansion and repeatedly voted against clean air and water protections.
Now, as they experience buyer’s remorse, here are some lies you’re bound to hear from the NH GOP in the coming days: they’re focused on their race, they’re not worried about what’s happening at the national level and New Hampshire voters won’t associate other Republicans with Trump.

The numbers tell a different tale. They say that come November, Trump’s candidacy will be a disaster for whoever emerges as the Republican gubernatorial candidate, for Senator Ayotte and for the rest of New Hampshire Republicans.