While much can be said of the execution of the McAuliffe campaign, perhaps more interesting is how Ken Cuccinelli managed to squander four decades of precedent and Republicans’ inherent demographic advantages in a midterm election. Seen as a rising star in the Republican Party, Cuccinelli – the nation’s first attorney general to file a lawsuit challenging the Affordable Care Act – started 2013 with a book tour that brought him to Iowa and New Hampshire with an eye toward 2016. But after a campaign in which he never led a poll after July, the one-time conservative hero was so unpopular that Republicans questioned if his unfavorability was a drag on the rest of the ticket.

Republicans were eager to pin their failures during the 2012 election on poor candidates deemed out-of-touch with mainstream voters. But the defeat of Cuccinelli’s orthodox conservatism is an indication that the problem lies in the positions and values of the Republican Party. The more voters learn about Republican candidates, the less they like them. These are the lessons to be drawn from the fall of Cuccinelli:

The Republican War on Women is Still Costing Them Elections

Ken Cuccinelli’s anti-women record was a focal point in the Virginia governor’s race, and it favored Terry McAuliffe. According to the late-October Washington Post poll, Cuccinelli trailed McAuliffe by 24 points among women. Cuccinelli’s firmly pro-life stance was seen as extremist by general election voters, and precluded him from being able to connect with them on other issues. Unable to downplay or distance himself from his radical past, he was not helped by groups like the Susan B. Anthony List who came in to “help” him, unable to realize that the Republican war on women will continue to cost them dearly with voters.

Tea Party Conservatism is a Liability for Republicans

Despite their long-since-forgotten autopsy after the 2012 debacle, the Republican Party has made no effort to appeal to voters turned off by the party’s most extreme positions. Instead of distancing themselves from the far-right Tea Partiers, Republicans across the board continue to embrace these polarizing figures to their own detriment.

Cuccinelli’s extremism was amplified when viewed in conjunction with national figures in his party. His comments comparing immigrants to rats echoed the national story that developed from Rep. Steve King’s comparison of immigrants to dogs, compounded by Cuccinelli’s praise for King as “one of [his] very favorite Congressmen.” And while Virginia suffered a disproportionate burden of the government shutdown, Cuccinelli had trouble explaining to Virginia voters his previous comments arguing that the Senate needed “more Ted Cruzes.”

In the Age of Research and Tracking, There’s No Hiding From Your Past

Cuccinelli’s decade of using his public office as a conservative crusader was enabled by an election strategy that focused instead on economic issues. Video of Cuccinelli bragging to a conservative audience about a previous win confirmed as much: “[We] told the Post we were talking about transportation. They bought it.” The difference this year was that Democrats didn’t let him redefine himself.

In an August interview with the Washington Post, Cuccinelli tried to pull one over on Virginia voters again when he claimed, “I have a flat position: I’m not touching contraception while I’m governor.” But he was caught red-handed less than 24 hours later when evidence from the historical record rebutted his claim. A 2007 personhood bill he sponsored would have banned many forms of contraception, and he wrote a 2003 letter to colleagues in which he argued that emergency contraception was not a form of birth control.

And Cuccinelli’s running mate, E.W. Jackson learned the hard way that video doesn’t lie. Questioned about his history of hateful statements towards the LGBT community, Jackson attempted to defend himself by claiming that the comments were taken out of context. But NewsChannel 8 simply played the video – unedited and in context.

The lesson here for Republican candidates is simple: you will be held accountable for what you say and believe.

The Steady Jab Can Be Just as Damaging as the Knockout Punch

Unlike Todd Akin or George Allen in 2006, there’s no defining moment that one can point to as the moment Cuccinelli lost the campaign. But in a sense, one might want to return to Cuccinelli’s decision not to resign as Attorney General to run for Governor.

Cuccinelli’s decision ignored decades of precedent, opening him to criticism when American Bridge caught him skipping a meeting of the Governor’s Task Force on School & Campus Safety for a campaign event. It also added relevancy to the conflict of interest accusations that surfaced around his connection to Star Scientific CEO Jonnie Williams. Cuccinelli’s failure to disclose gifts he received from Williams, and his obstinate refusal to return them, allowed Democratic groups to hammer Cuccinelli while similar concerns transformed Gov. McDonnell from an asset to a liability. Cuccinelli’s inability to address his culpability in the Southwest Virginia gas royalties case added to the ethics concerns surrounding his tenure as Attorney General. Democratic groups pursued every development in the story, and each punch landed accumulated into a cohesive narrative that shaped the campaign.

What Worked Nationally in 2012 Can Work in the States

A recent POLITICO article detailed the unprecedented level of coordination between Democratic outside groups in taking down Ken Cuccinelli. The effort was a state-scaled version of the national model that allowed Democratic outside groups to overcome Republican Super PACs’ significant spending advantage in the 2012 election. Each organization, from labor to environment to Planned Parenthood, focused on their area of expertise, coordinating the timing and targeting of their messaging. With attention to the nuances of each state, it’s a feat that can be duplicated across the country for Senate and Governors’ races in 2014.

Ken Cuccinelli was supposed to be the answer to conservative complaints that Republicans had lost battleground elections in recent years by nominating candidates who were not conservative enough. Instead, he became just the latest cautionary tale for Republicans in how to lose winnable elections. The factors that contributed to Cuccinelli’s defeat and McAuliffe’s victory were not unique to this race; Republicans across the country will face those same factors in 2014. So long as they’re beholden to their extreme Tea Party positions, they’ll be vulnerable to an informed electorate holding them accountable for their out-of-touch views.

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REPUBLICAN REACTIONS

Republican National Committee
November 5, 2013
Republican National Committee
November 5, 2013 

MEMO from Republican National Committee

MEMORANDUM


FROM: RNC Political Director Chris McNulty
TO: Republican Allies and Surrogates
RE: RNC Ground Game

After today's election, many of you have been asking about the RNC’s role in New Jersey and Virginia this year—and about what we’ve been doing to prepare for 2014.
 
As you know, the RNC began a long-term process earlier this year to build a year-round campaign and fundamentally reshape the party’s approach to politics. Among our priorities were developing a precinct-based voter contact model, creating a voter engagement strategy for minority communities, and better integrating data and digital capabilities to make voter contact more efficient.
 
These are still works in progress. The new strategies will be fully in place for 2014. However this year’s elections did allow us to test some new models and new ideas. In New Jersey, we accelerated our demographic engagement plans. In Virginia, we focused especially on improving the voter contact model and utilizing new methods and technology. The lessons we learned will be applied in 2014.
 
Here are some of things we did in New Jersey:

• The RNC spent $2.5 million to support Chris Christie and the Republican ticket, while building the party’s presence in New Jersey.
• The RNC had 32 staff in New Jersey, stationed in 20 offices, eight of which were paid for by the RNC.
• Two of the offices, located in Paterson and Vineland, were dedicated to Hispanic engagement and bilingual voter contact. This investment helped the New Jersey Republican Party and the Christie campaign contact and identify new Republican voters.
• On-the-ground Hispanic engagement activities were coordinated with our state advisory team of 15 county chairs. (By next year, the team will have grown to 40 new chairs in targeted precincts.)
• African American engagement staff ensured Republicans had a presence at events and gathering across the state, ready to pass out literature and share our message.
• Republicans attended everything from civic and religious events to high school competitions, from an annual Alpha Kappa Alpha gathering to rallies for African American candidates.
• The Christie campaign utilized RNC offices to hold Asian-Pacific American phone banks and to organize the canvassing operation.
• With a record number of Republican women running for office in New Jersey, the RNC Co-Chair’s office helped launched Project New Jersey, along with sister organizations and committees, to provide training and support for these candidates.   

Here’s a look at Virginia:

• The RNC spent $3 million to support Ken Cuccinelli and the Republican ticket, while building the party’s presence in Virginia.
• In getting out the vote for Cuccinelli and the Republican ticket, we tested our new precinct-based voter contact model.
• Precinct Teams, led by Precinct Captains, canvassed neighborhoods using RNC data and new technology.
• This allowed for a more decentralized approach: individuals could focus on neighborhoods with which they were familiar.
• By October, we already had twice as many data points as we did at the same point in 2012.
• We had 50 offices, which was more than 2012.
• We had 60 staff on the ground, on par with 2012.
• Our Virginia-based staff included four dedicated to Asian-Pacific American engagement, two for African American engagement, and one for Hispanic engagement.
• On the communications side, the RNC equipped campaigns with comprehensive communications plans for engaging with minority communities.
• The RNC ran ads on Korean TV, commissioned a poll of Korean residents and tested targeted digital ads—in addition to other efforts to reach new voters.

Building a truly national party with a year-round presence takes time. But in just a few short months we’ve made much progress. We already have hundreds of staff at work in communities all across the country. Under our new grassroots-based ground game model, we’re organizing at the precinct level, and our staff will work alongside state parties and campaigns to support a team of thousands of Precinct Captains we’ve already recruited. They in turn will be responsible for building Precinct Teams to contact and persuade voters neighborhood by neighborhood.
 
We’ve made substantial investments in engaging with Hispanic, African American, and Asian-Pacific communities, including staff and offices in Washington, DC, and multiple states. These efforts are based on the same model and organized down to the precinct level. In addition, the RNC is providing playbooks to campaigns for effective minority engagement, giving them resources they otherwise would not have.
 
All of this work is long-term. It’s about winning in 2014. It’s also about 2016, 2020, and beyond. It’s about laying a foundation for future candidates and campaigns.
 
The RNC’s mission is to prepare the field for our candidates. Our work continues on in 2014, and we will refine our approach based on what we learned from 2013.
 
Gone are the days of stockpiling money till a few months before Election Day. The RNC is operating year round and engaging year round. Over the long term, we believe this approach will pay dividends and result in a larger party that wins more elections.

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also

MEMO from National Republican Congressional Committee
November 4, 2013

FROM: Greg Walden
TO: Republican Conference
SUBJECT: One Year Today
 
As I’m out traveling my congressional district in Oregon, I’m hearing a consistent theme from my constituents that I know many of you are hearing, too: People don’t have much trust in the federal government to fix our problems.
 
That general attitude translated into reality in the last couple of weeks, as the rollout of ObamaCare turned out to be exactly what Democrat Max Baucus had predicted – an utter train wreck.
 
The total dysfunctionality of the ObamaCare Web site has brought to life the serious consequences of this flawed law – and more broadly, the inability of President Obama and the Democrats who control Washington to solve our problems.
 
We stand today exactly one year from Election Day 2014, and if the last 12 months are any indication, there are going to be many challenges and issues that emerge between now and then. Some we can predict; many we can’t. And all along the way, the pundits and beltway prognosticators will have their say.
 
But we also know something else: Through all the twists and turns of this last year – from the president’s sequester to his botched handling of Benghazi and Syria to the IRS scandal – ObamaCare remains at the top of the American people’s concerns, and the failure of its rollout has only escalated their fears about this law.
 
Certainly, other issues may rise and fall – but ObamaCare is the constant that runs through this election.
 
And when you couple the ObamaCare train wreck with Nancy Pelosi’s continued claim that spending isn’t a problem, and the Democrats constant defense of all things Washington, a powerful theme has emerged as we enter the election year: Democrats are running on an agenda that puts Washington first; Republicans are running on an agenda that puts Americans first.
 
DISTRICT POLLING
 
This paradigm helps explain some consistent trends we are seeing in recent polling conducted by Harper Polling in some of the most competitive House districts in the country – and that runs counter to the mainstream media narrative.
 
I’ll detail findings in specific districts, but here are some general themes we see across the country:
 
·         Democrat incumbents in key districts are weak.
·         President Obama is incredibly unpopular in these same districts.
·         Voters see Democrat incumbents as part of the problem in Washington.
·         Voters prefer a Republican check and balance to a Democrat who will help the president pass his agenda.
·         Rising premiums under ObamaCare are a big concern among voters.
 
Now, a look at some specific districts:
 
·         AZ-01: This is looking more and more like one of our best pick-up opportunities anywhere in the nation. Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick’s approval rating sits at just 33 percent – extremely weak for an incumbent in a toss-up district and 6 points lower than President Obama’s approval in this district (Obama is at 54 percent disapproval). Does she deserve re-election? Only 33 percent say, yes. And 40 percent of those surveyed say Kirkpatrick is part of the problem in Washington, with only 33 percent seeing her as part of the solution. Any way you look at it, Kirkpatrick is in big trouble.
 
·         CA-07: President Obama’s disapproval is at 51 percent in this suburban Sacramento district. Think that’s bad? Well, Democrat Ami Bera’s approval is actually 7 points lower than the president – only 34 percent approve of how Bera is doing his job. Meanwhile, only 33 percent of those polled think Bera deserves re-election, and 41 percent think he’s part of the problem in Washington.
 
·         IL-12: Here, a whopping 55 percent of those polled disapprove of the job the president is doing – and only 25 percent of voters approve of Democrat incumbent Bill Enyart. That’s embarrassingly low for an incumbent facing a tough midterm race. Similarly, only 24 percent think Enyart deserves re-election, and 43 percent of voters see him as part of the problem in Washington. And here’s the best part: In a head-to-head match-up, Republican Mike Bost is beating Enyart – 41 percent to 36 percent.
 
·         WV-03: Democrats are in complete denial that they have a race in this district, but recent polling is revealing. An extraordinary high 67 percent of voters disapprove of President Obama, and a majority of voters (52 percent) want someone new in Congress (only 35 percent think Democrat Nick Rahall deserves re-election). I believe Rahall’s numbers will continue to slide as more and more voters in this district, which relies heavily on coal jobs, learn that Rahall voted for a coal-destroying carbon tax. His problems are compounded by the fact that his challenger, Democrat-turned-Republican Evan Jenkins, outraised him in the last quarter.
  
GOING FORWARD
 
Twelve months out from Election Day, Republicans are in a strong position to grow our majority.
 
Voters want accountability and transparency in government, and they know that they are not going to get that by giving Democrats full control of Washington.
 
We have an excellent and diverse field of candidates that include women and minorities – with more on the way. In the last quarter, five of our candidates outraised the Democrat incumbents they are challenging.
 
The bottom line is that Americans have experienced what happens when Democrats have complete control of Washington: ObamaCare, trillions of dollars in new reckless spending, higher taxes, more debt, IRS scandals. Meanwhile, our agenda includes getting our spending under control, balancing our budget to get our economy moving, promoting patient-centered healthcare reform and ensuring that government is accountable and transparent.
 
Even so, we aren’t taking anything for granted. President Obama has made clear that winning the House for Democrats is his number one goal. We will continue to stay on offense so we can ensure that Nancy Pelosi is never, ever Speaker of the House again.