Can We Do Better?
Turnout in the 2016 presidential election was 58.9 percent of
eligible voters. There are still significant numbers of nonvoters.
America claims to be "the world's greatest democracy" so the question
must be asked, can we do better?
The Changing Electorate
The campaigns, parties, aligned organizations, and many other groups all work to encourage people to vote. The debacle of Florida in 2000 reminded voters that voting can indeed make a difference. While 2008 saw the highest turnout since 1968, as 61.6 percent of eligible voters turned out, in 2012 turnout dipped to 58.0 percent of eligible voters and in 2016 turnout settled at 59.3 percent of eligible voters.
In the 2016 general election three states had turnout of greater
than 70 percent of eligible voters: Minnesota (74.1%), New Hampshire
(71.5%), Maine (70.7%). At
the other extreme
(41.7%) and West Virginia (49.9%).
A May 2017 Census Bureau report "Voting in America: A Look at the 2016 Presidential Election" found that non-Hispanic whites accounted for 73.3% of reported voters (compared to 73.7% in 2012); the share of non-Hispanic black voters decreased to 11.9% in 2016 from (12.9% in 2012), the Hispanic share increased to 9.2% (from 8.4%), and the Asian share increased to 3.6% (from 2.8%) (1, 2). Different demographic groups turn out at different levels. According to the report, "In 2016, turnout increased to 65.3 percent for non-Hispanic whites, but decreased to 59.6 percent for non-Hispanic blacks."
By comparison the Census Bureau reported in 2012 that 66.2% of blacks voted, 64.1% of non-Hispanic whites, 48.0% of Hispanics and 47.3% of Asians. Overall, according to the Census Bureau report, non-Hispanic whites accounted for 71.1% of the eligible electorate, blacks 12.5%, Hispanics 10.8% and Asians 3.8%. However, because of the different turnout rates, the composition of those voting was somewhat different: 73.7% non-Hispanic whites, 13.4% blacks, 8.4% Hispanics and 2.9% Asians. A major finding of the report is that "the 2012 voting population expansion came primarily from minority voters."
The Hispanic Vote
The Hispanic vote continued to recieve particular attention in 2016. Less than half of eligible Latinos vote. A projected 27.3 million Latinos are eligible to vote, yet the NALEO Educational Fund projects 13.1 million Latinos will cast ballots in 2016 (+). According to the Pew Hispanic Center between 2012 and 2016 3.2 million Latino youth became eligible to vote, and millennials account for 44% of Hispanic eligible voters (+)
R. van Lohuizen of Voter/Consumer Research observed that the Hispanic
vote in 2012
"did not increase uniformly, and most of the increase did not occur in
the key swing states." (PDF)
voters is the highest seen by a Democratic candidate since 1996, when
President Bill Clinton won 72% of the Hispanic vote." (PDF) van Lohuizen writes,
"Republicans have a very significant image problem among
Trump's comments during the course of the campaign appear to have only
worsened that problem.
Voter ID Laws
Efforts of a number of states to pass voter ID laws, ostensibly because of concerns about voter fraud, became a significant issue in the months leading up to Nov. 2012 (examples: FL, PA, TX). The Brennan Center for Justice raised early alarms of a "wave of restrictive laws that could make it harder for up to 5 million Americans to vote," but subsequently pared the number to a still significant 500,000 voters. Brennan cited "closed offices, long trips without cars and spotty public transit, and prohibitive costs for documents needed to get ID (+). On Sept. 19, 2012 "groups representing communities of color...declared a 'state of emergency' on voting rights in the U.S. and said that millions of people could be disenfranchised by restrictive voter laws." (+) (see also NCSL: Voter Identification Requirements).
A Pew Research Center analysis of Census data found the top three
reasons for not voting in the 2016 presidential election were: dislike
of the candidates or campaign issues (25%); not interested or felt
their vote would not make a difference (15%); and too busy or a
scheduling conflict (14%) (>).
Attention has focused on making it easier for citizens to register
as a way to increase participation. In 1993 Congress passed the
National Voter Registration Act (Motor
Voter). According to the Election Administration Commission, at
the time of the 2016 election 32.7% of registration applications were
done through the Deparment of Motor Vehicles. However,
a report by the Pew Center on the States, Upgrading Democracy (May 2011),
suggested there was still considerable room for improvement in
voter registration. A second Pew report, Inaccurate, Costly and Inefficient
(Feb. 2012), found that "approximately 24 million or 1 in 8
registrations are significantly inaccurate or no longer valid."
Further, NVRA has not led to dramatically higher participation.
In an effort to
increase voter turnout, individual states have been trying measures to
it easier to vote, such as early voting, voting by mail, and liberal
Groups such as the Brennan
Center advocate for Election Day registration and ultimately for
registration. According to Ballotpedia, 13 states and DC had same
registration for the Nov. 2016 presidential election, although for two
of those states, OH and MD, it was just for early voting.
Why Tuesday?, a non-partisan, nonprofit 501(c)(3) organization founded in 2005, has sought to move federal Election Day from the first Tuesday in November to the first Saturday and Sunday of the month. Why Tuesday? argues that "our process of voting is based on an outdated 19th century agrarian model that long ago lost its relevance." Looking to the future, Internet voting is a possibility; this may take root among military and overseas voters, but concerns about security of online voting systems remain.
Another remedy may be to improve or expand the choices available to voters. Competitive races create greater interest and boost participation. Credible third party challenges, notably Ross Perot's candidacy in 1992 and Jesse Ventura's gubernatorial campaign in 1998, have brought high turnout. A number of states have extremely restrictive ballot access laws, and changes to these laws could introduce additional viewpoints and enliven the debate. Likewise, different election models such as instant runoff voting and proportional voting rather than winner-take-all in legislative races may help to empower voters.
Finally, the tone
of campaigns may also depress turnout. Poll-driven rhetoric
begins to sound the same after
a while, thirty-second spots are not a very effective way to conduct a
reasoned discourse, and the multitude of attacks likely discourages
some people from
out at the polls.
Register and Vote Efforts
Besides the parties', campaigns' and their allies' efforts to bring out their own supporters, secretaries of state and county election officials sometimes mount campaigns to encourage citizens to register and vote. Additionally a host of nonpartisan organizations have sought to register voters and raise turnout, often focusing on specific demographic groups. There are other groups seeking to encourage turnout among youth, African Americans, Hispanics, Native Americans, low income voters and members of the faith community; groups are also concerned about the voting rights of felons who have served their sentences. National Voter Registration Day, Sept. 27, 2016, was a noteworthy effort that brought together dozens of partners (+).
Most of these efforts procede without incident, but in 2008 ACORN
attracted considerable noteriety. For almost forty years ACORN
had sought to organize low-
moderate-income communities, but in 2008 there were a number of
instances where the group was involved in falsifying voter
registrations, and it became a magnet for criticism from Republicans
and the right, ultimately filing for Chapter 7 bankruptcy in Nov. 2010.
Efforts of organizations working on civic engagement and voter participation range from 30-second public service announcements (PSAs) that contain slick get-out-the-vote messages to grassroots drives in which people go door-to-door in targeted neighborhoods. Person to person contact, particularly from family, friends and neighbors is especially effective. In addition to organizations which encourage people to register and vote, there are "election protection" efforts which seek to counter activities which might intimidate voters or suppress the vote.
Finally, it must
be remembered that
voting is only a first step, a minimum level of participation.
real challenge is not just to increase the number of voters, but to
citizens are informed about the choices they make. Groups such as
Project Vote Smart and the League of Women Voters as well the news
media do work in this area, but there remains room for improvement.