- The Road to Cleveland « March 15, 2016 FL, IL, MO, NC, OH and NMI
March 15, 2016 FL, IL, MO, NC, OH and NMI
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March 15 Dems: FL, IL,
MO, NC and OH
367
Delegates
Summary:
This was the second biggest day in terms of number of delegates at
stake on
both the Republican and Democratic calendars. Donald Trump won
five of the six contests.
Intense attention
focused on Florida, a winner-take-all-state with 99 delegates at stake
and the survival of Marco Rubio's candidacy on the line.
Anti-Trump forces put a lot of resources into Florida, but it did not
help Rubio as Trump trounced him by 45.7% to 27.0%. Rubio
suspended his campaign (+).
The race in Ohio, a winner-take-all-state with 66 delegates, also
attracted a lot of attention. John Kasich prevailed in his home
state, finishing ahead of Donald Trump by 46.8% to 35.6%. His
campaign saw the win, his first, as an important turning point (+).
But the day was Trump's. In addition to winning Florida
decisively he won Illinois, North Carolina, narrowly in Missouri, and
he took Northern Mariana Islands' nine delegates.
Events have now occured in states and territories accounting for
more than half the delegates (1,489 of 2,472) and with today's contests
Trump has more than half the 1,237 delegates needed to nominate. (The Washington Post and Politico puts Trump's lead over
Cruz at 678 to 423, CNN at 683 to 421, the New York Times at 673 to 410, and
FiveThirtyEight and The Green Papers at 695 to 424. Kasich has
around 143-44). Trump's lead over Cruz has grown to more than 250
delegates, but many observers say he will not be able to achieve
1,237.
Florida - Illinois - Missouri - North Carolina - Ohio - Northern Mariana Islands
FLORIDA PRESIDENTIAL PREFERENCE PRIMARY (99 delegates)
| TRUMP | RUBIO | CRUZ | KASICH | OTHERS
(9) |
TOTAL |
| 1,079,870 (45.72%) |
638,661 (27.04%) |
404,891 (17.14%) |
159,976 (6.77%) |
78,385 (3.32%) |
2,361,805 |
OVERVIEW
Quite several of the candidates had Florida connections. In
addition to former Gov. Jeb Bush and Sen. Marco Rubio, Dr. Ben Carson
now lives in West Palm Beach and former Gov. Mike Huckabee's home is at
Blue Mountain Beach on the Florida Panhandle. Donald Trump has
the
Mar-a-Lago Club in Palm Beach, "one of the most highly regarded private
clubs in the world."
Early on, observers
focused on the prospect of a showdown between Bush and Rubio.
Rubio officially announced on April 13, 2015 at the Freedom Tower in
Miami (+),
while Bush made his official entry into the race a couple of months
later on June 15 , 2015 at the Kendall campus of Miami Dade College (+). Bush seemed
to have the edge, starting out with endorsements from 11 members of
Congress to one for Rubio. Both candidates built up county level
organizations in the state. However,
Bush
ended
his
candidacy
after
the
Feb.
20
South
Carolina
primary
so
the
showdown
did
not
occur,
and
by
the
time
the
campaign
arrived
in
Florida,
Rubio's
candidacy
was
in
a
very precarious state, to the point
that he needed a win to continue. There was some talk about
whether Bush would endorse Rubio, but that did not happen, and given
the lopsided outcome it would not have helped.
Donald Trump looked very
strong in the state, but he was subjected to a barrage of attack ads
from groups including American
Future Fund, Our Principles PAC and Club for Growth Action.
The Cruz campaign also
made a late play in Florida, opening up offices around the state in
early March. The pro-Cruz super PAC Keep the Promise I had been
reported ready to air ads attacking Rubio, but then decided that he was
doing poorly enough that it could focus on other states.
John Kasich did not have a
noticeable presence.
Five days out from the
primary, the four candidates met in a debate (+) sponsored by CNN at
the University of Miami. The tone was much improved from the
previous two debates; there was more of a focus on issues than insults;
Trump noted afterwards that his wife and daughter had advised him to be
"presidential."
Trump carried 66 of 67
counties; Rubio won one, his home base of Miami-Dade County by a margin
of 62.7% to 22.5%.
Shane
Goldmacher. "Cruz super PAC aims to take out Rubio in
Florida." Politico,
March
7,
2016.
Allahpundit. "Cruz Super PAC decides not to attack in Florida as
new poll shows Rubio within six of Trump." Hot
Air, March 11, 2016.
REACTION
Florida Republican
Party
CHAIRMAN INGOGLIA CONGRATULATES WINNER OF FLORIDA REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
Tallahassee, FL
– Today, Florida GOP Chairman Blaise Ingoglia released the
following statement congratulating Donald Trump for winning Florida’s
Republican presidential primary election.
“I would like to
congratulate Donald Trump on winning Florida’s winner-take-all
presidential primary. Today, over two million Florida Republicans
participated in an unprecedented, historic voter turnout that dwarfed
the efforts of the Democrats—a testament to voters’ continued distrust
with Hillary Clinton and the failed policies she continues promotes.
While the Florida GOP will remain neutral in the Republican nominating
process, we will continue our grassroots efforts to defeat Hillary
Clinton and put a Republican in the White House come November.”
###
DELEGATES
99 Total
Delegates: 15 At-Large, 81 Congressional District and 3 RNC.
Allocation
of
all
delegates
is
winner-take-all
by
statewide
vote.
National delegate
allocation: Trump 99.
81
CD
delegates
chosen
by
by the chair, state committeeman
and state committeewoman of each county that in the congressional
district.
15 At-large delegates chosen by the RPOF Executive
Committee at the party's Spring Quarterly Meeting in Tampa on May
13-14, 2016.
This did not seem to have any impact:
April 21, 2016 Press
Release/Complaint - "Freedom Watch Founder Sues Republican
Establishment To Validate Vote In Republican Florida Primary And To Set
Precedent That Nomination Process Will Not Be Circumvented."
ILLINOIS PRESIDENTIAL PREFERENCE PRIMARY (69 delegates)
| TRUMP | CRUZ | KASICH | RUBIO | OTHERS
(8) |
TOTAL |
| 562,464 (38.80%) |
438,235 (30.23%) |
286,118 (19.74%) |
126,681 (8.74%) |
36,250 (2.50%) |
1,449,748 |
OVERVIEW
The point of the Illinois campaign that drew the most attention came
when Donald Trump postponed the rally he had scheduled for March 11 in
Chicago due to concerns about the safety of people there (+).
DELEGATES
69 Total
Delegates: 12 At-Large, 54 Congressional District and 3 RNC.
Allocation of at-large delegates is winner-take-al
based on the statewide vote.
Congressional district delegates are elected directly on the primary
ballot and are bound to the candidate for whom they declare themselves.
National
delegate
allocation: Trump 53, Cruz 9, Kasich 5.
State Convention: May 19-21, 2016 at Peoria
Marriott Pere Marquett in Peoria.
MISSOURI PRESIDENTIAL PREFERENCE PRIMARY (52 delegates)
| TRUMP | CRUZ | KASICH | RUBIO | OTHERS
(8) |
UNCOMM. |
TOTAL |
| 383,631 (40.84%) |
381,666 (40.63%) |
94,857 (10.10%) |
57,244 (6.10%) |
18,647 (1.99%) |
3,225 (0.34%) |
939,270 |
J.Lynch 100 (0.01%), Paul 1,777 (0.19%), Santorum 732 (0.08%)
OVERVIEW
Missouri proved to be the tightest contest thus far. Trump won
with a plurality of less than 2,000 votes. He carried CDs 1, 2,
3, 6 and 8 while Cruz carried CDs 4, 5 and 7 in the southwest part of
the state (5 delegates for each CD, and the statewide win gave Trump
the 12 at large delegates). Cruz's campaign manager Jeff Roe, a
veteran operative who is based out of Kansas City, MO, no doubt sees
this as one that got away. The Democratic primary in Missouri was
also extremely close.
DELEGATES
52 Total Delegates:
25 At-Large, 24 Congressional District and 3 RNC.
Allocation of at-large and CD delegates is proportional based on the CD vote with the plurality winner of each CD receiving 5 delegates (3 CD and 2 AL) and the remaining 9 at-large delegates going to the statewide winner. If a candidate receives more than 50% of the vote, winner take all.
National delegate
allocation: Trump
37
Cruz
15.
Local Caucuses:
April 9, 2016 in all 114 counties
and the city of St. Louis. [PDF]
Congressional District
Conventions: April 30, 2016. [PDF]
State Convention:
May 20-21, 2016 at the Branson Hilton Convention Center in Branson, MO.
[details from
MO
GOP]
NORTH CAROLINA PRESIDENTIAL PREFERENCE PRIMARY (72 delegates)
| TRUMP | CRUZ | KASICH | RUBIO | OTHERS
(8) |
NO
PREF. |
TOTAL |
| 462,413 (40.23%) |
422,611 (36.76%) |
145,659 (12.67%) |
88,907 (7.73%) |
23,849 (2.07%) |
6,081 (0.53%) |
1,149,520 |
Gilmore 265 (0.02%)
OVERVIEW
Trump continues to win in the South; he carried 78 of North Carolina's
100 counties. Cruz carried the other 22 including a band of four
counties centered on Asheville and 16 counties stretching from
Washington in the East to Forsyth in the West.
DELEGATES
72 Total Delegates:
30 At-Large, 39 Congressional District, 3 RNC.
Allocation of at-large and CD delegates is proportional based on the statewide vote.
National delegate allocation: Trump 29, Cruz 27, Kasich 9, Rubio 6, uncertain 1.
County Conventions: March-April, 2016
Congressional District Conventions: April 2-27, 2016
State Convention: May 7-9, 2016
OHIO PRESIDENTIAL PREFERENCE PRIMARY (66 delegates)
| KASICH |
TRUMP | CRUZ |
RUBIO |
OTHERS
(6) |
TOTAL |
| 933,886 (46.95%) |
713,404 (35.87%) |
264,640 (13.31%) |
46,478 (2.34%) |
30,552 (1.54%) |
1,988,960 |
Organization:
CRUZ
|
KASICH
|
KASICH
SUPER PAC |
RUBIO
| TRUMP
OVERVIEW
The survival of Gov. Kasich's campaign came to depend on him winning
his
home state. Trump posed the biggest threat, but Kasich had
home field advantage and secured endorsements of numerous elected
officials and activists and
even the Ohio Republican Party. The
pro-Kasich super PAC New Day for America was also active in Ohio,
opening seven offices around the state.
Kasich
carried 55 counties to 33 for Trump. Trump did best in the
Southeast part of the state.
DELEGATES
66 Total Delegates: 15 At-Large, 48 Congressional District, 3 RNC.
Allocation is winner-take-all based on the statewide vote.
National delegate
allocation: Kasich 66.
Candidates were required to file paperwork with the Secretary of State
90 days before the primary, including for Republicans their own slate
of delegates and alternates:
NORTH MARIANA ISLANDS PRESIDENTIAL CAUCUS (9 delegates)
Official
Results
-
CNMI Republican
Party | Rules of CNMI Republican Caucus |
Ballot
| TRUMP |
CRUZ | KASICH | RUBIO | TOTAL |
| 343 |
113 |
10 |
5 |
471 |
Organization: CARSON | CRUZ | TRUMP
Copyright © 2016 Eric M. Appleman/Democracy in
Action.
All rights reserved