March 15, 2016 FL, IL, MO, NC, OH and NMI

< March 12  |  March 15  |  March 22 > 
March 15 Dems:
FL, IL, MO, NC and OH 

367 Delegates
Summary
:  This was the second biggest day in terms of number of delegates at stake on both the Republican and Democratic calendars.  Donald Trump won five of the six contests. 

Intense attention focused on Florida, a winner-take-all-state with 99 delegates at stake and the survival of Marco Rubio's candidacy on the line.  Anti-Trump forces put a lot of resources into Florida, but it did not help Rubio as Trump trounced him by 45.7% to 27.0%.  Rubio suspended his campaign (+). 

The race in Ohio, a winner-take-all-state with 66 delegates, also attracted a lot of attention.  John Kasich prevailed in his home state, finishing ahead of Donald Trump by 46.8% to 35.6%.  His campaign saw the win, his first, as an important turning point (+). 

But the day was Trump's.  In addition to winning Florida decisively he won Illinois, North Carolina, narrowly in Missouri, and he took Northern Mariana Islands' nine delegates.

Events have now occured in states and territories accounting for more than half the delegates (1,489 of 2,472) and with today's contests Trump has more than half the 1,237 delegates needed to nominate.  (The Washington Post and Politico puts Trump's lead over Cruz at 678 to 423, CNN at 683 to 421, the New York Times at 673 to 410, and FiveThirtyEight and The Green Papers at 695 to 424.  Kasich has around 143-44).  Trump's lead over Cruz has grown to more than 250 delegates, but many observers say he will not be able to achieve 1,237. 

Florida - Illinois - Missouri - North Carolina - Ohio - Northern Mariana Islands

FLORIDA PRESIDENTIAL PREFERENCE PRIMARY (99 delegates)

Official Results - Florida Secretary of Stata  |  Ballot (2) [PDF]
TRUMP RUBIO CRUZ KASICH OTHERS (9)
TOTAL
1,079,870
(45.72%)
638,661
(27.04%)
404,891
(17.14%)
159,976
(6.77%)
78,385
(3.32%)
2,361,805
Bush 43,511 (1.84%), Carson 21,207 (0.9%), Christie 2,493 (0.11%), Fiorina 1,899 (0.08%), Gilmore 319 (0.01%), Graham 693 (0.03%), Huckabee 2,624 (0.11%), Paul 4,450 (0.19%), Santorum 1,211 (0.05%).

Note: Early voting from Saturday, March 5 - Sunday, March 13, 2016.

Organization:  BUSH  |  CRUZ  |  RUBIO  |  TRUMP


OVERVIEW
Quite several of the candidates had Florida connections.  In addition to former Gov. Jeb Bush and Sen. Marco Rubio, Dr. Ben Carson now lives in West Palm Beach and former Gov. Mike Huckabee's home is at Blue Mountain Beach on the Florida Panhandle.  Donald Trump has the Mar-a-Lago Club in Palm Beach, "one of the most highly regarded private clubs in the world."

Early on, observers focused on the prospect of a showdown between Bush and Rubio.  Rubio officially announced on April 13, 2015 at the Freedom Tower in Miami (+), while Bush made his official entry into the race a couple of months later on June 15 , 2015 at the Kendall campus of Miami Dade College (+).  Bush seemed to have the edge, starting out with endorsements from 11 members of Congress to one for Rubio.  Both candidates built up county level organizations in the state.  However, Bush ended his candidacy after the Feb. 20 South Carolina primary so the showdown did not occur, and by the time the campaign arrived in Florida, Rubio's candidacy was in a very precarious state, to the point that he needed a win to continue.  There was some talk about whether Bush would endorse Rubio, but that did not happen, and given the lopsided outcome it would not have helped.

Donald Trump looked very strong in the state, but he was subjected to a barrage of attack ads from groups including American Future Fund, Our Principles PAC and Club for Growth Action.

The Cruz campaign also made a late play in Florida, opening up offices around the state in early March. The pro-Cruz super PAC Keep the Promise I had been reported ready to air ads attacking Rubio, but then decided that he was doing poorly enough that it could focus on other states.

John Kasich did not have a noticeable presence.

Five days out from the primary, the four candidates met in a debate (+) sponsored by CNN at the University of Miami.  The tone was much improved from the previous two debates; there was more of a focus on issues than insults; Trump noted afterwards that his wife and daughter had advised him to be "presidential."

Trump carried 66 of 67 counties; Rubio won one, his home base of Miami-Dade County by a margin of 62.7% to 22.5%.

Shane Goldmacher.  "Cruz super PAC aims to take out Rubio in Florida."  Politico, March 7, 2016.
Allahpundit.  "Cruz Super PAC decides not to attack in Florida as new poll shows Rubio within six of Trump."  Hot Air, March 11, 2016.


REACTION
Florida Republican Party

CHAIRMAN INGOGLIA CONGRATULATES WINNER OF FLORIDA REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

Tallahassee, FL – Today, Florida GOP Chairman Blaise Ingoglia released the following statement congratulating Donald Trump for winning Florida’s Republican presidential primary election.

“I would like to congratulate Donald Trump on winning Florida’s winner-take-all presidential primary. Today, over two million Florida Republicans participated in an unprecedented, historic voter turnout that dwarfed the efforts of the Democrats—a testament to voters’ continued distrust with Hillary Clinton and the failed policies she continues promotes. While the Florida GOP will remain neutral in the Republican nominating process, we will continue our grassroots efforts to defeat Hillary Clinton and put a Republican in the White House come November.”

###

DELEGATES
99 Total Delegates:  15 At-Large, 81 Congressional District and 3 RNC.

Allocation of all delegates is winner-take-all by statewide vote.

National delegate allocation:  Trump 99.

81 CD delegates chosen by by the chair, state committeeman and state committeewoman of each county that in the congressional district.
15 At-large delegates chosen by the RPOF Executive Committee at the party's Spring Quarterly Meeting in Tampa on May 13-14, 2016.

Delegates

This did not seem to have any impact:
April 21, 2016 Press Release/Complaint - "Freedom Watch Founder Sues Republican Establishment To Validate Vote In Republican Florida Primary And To Set Precedent That Nomination Process Will Not Be Circumvented."




ILLINOIS PRESIDENTIAL PREFERENCE PRIMARY (69 delegates)

Official Results - State Board of Elections  |  ILGOP Delegate Selection Guide  |  Filing Delegate Slates  |  Balllot [PDF]
TRUMP CRUZ KASICH RUBIO OTHERS (8)
TOTAL
562,464
(38.80%)
438,235
(30.23%)
286,118
(19.74%)
126,681
(8.74%)
36,250
(2.50%)
1,449,748
Carson 11,469,  Bush 11,188,  Paul 4,718,  Christie 3,428,  Huckabee 2,737,  Fiorina 1,540,  Santorum 1,154,  Breivogel 16

 Organization:  BUSH  |  CARSON  |  CRUZ  |  KASICH  |  RUBIO  |  TRUMP                              



OVERVIEW
The point of the Illinois campaign that drew the most attention came when Donald Trump postponed the rally he had scheduled for March 11 in Chicago due to concerns about the safety of people there (+).


DELEGATES
69 Total Delegates:  12 At-Large, 54 Congressional District and 3 RNC.

Allocation of at-large delegates is winner-take-al based on the statewide vote.
Congressional district delegates are elected directly on the primary ballot and are bound to the candidate for whom they declare themselves.

National delegate allocation:  Trump 53, Cruz 9, Kasich 5.


State Convention:  May 19-21, 2016 at Peoria Marriott Pere Marquett in Peoria.

Delegates




MISSOURI PRESIDENTIAL PREFERENCE PRIMARY (52 delegates)

Official Results - Missouri Secretary of StateBallot [PDF]
TRUMP CRUZ KASICH RUBIO OTHERS (8)
UNCOMM.
TOTAL
383,631
(40.84%)
381,666
(40.63%)
94,857
(10.10%)
57,244
(6.10%)
18,647
(1.99%)
3,225
(0.34%)
939,270
Bush 3,361 (0.36%), Carson 8,233 (0.88%), Christie 1,681 (0.18%), Fiorina 615 (0.07%), Huckabee 2,148 (0.23%),
J.Lynch 100 (0.01%), Paul 1,777 (0.19%), Santorum 732 (0.08%)



Organization:  BUSH  |  CRUZ  KASICH  |  RUBIO  |  TRUMP


OVERVIEW
Missouri proved to be the tightest contest thus far.  Trump won with a plurality of less than 2,000 votes.  He carried CDs 1, 2, 3, 6 and 8 while Cruz carried CDs 4, 5 and 7 in the southwest part of the state (5 delegates for each CD, and the statewide win gave Trump the 12 at large delegates).  Cruz's campaign manager Jeff Roe, a veteran operative who is based out of Kansas City, MO, no doubt sees this as one that got away.  The Democratic primary in Missouri was also extremely close.


DELEGATES

52 Total Delegates:  25 At-Large, 24 Congressional District and 3 RNC.

Allocation of at-large and CD delegates is proportional based on the CD vote with the plurality winner of each CD receiving 5 delegates (3 CD and 2 AL) and the remaining 9 at-large delegates going to the statewide winner.  If a candidate receives more than 50% of the vote, winner take all.

National delegate allocation:  Trump 37 Cruz 15. 

Local Caucuses:  April 9, 2016 in all 114 counties and the city of St. Louis. [PDF]
Congressional District Conventions:  April 30, 2016. [PDF]
State Convention:  May 20-21, 2016 at the Branson Hilton Convention Center in Branson, MO.

 [details from MO GOP]

Delegates




NORTH CAROLINA PRESIDENTIAL PREFERENCE PRIMARY (72 delegates)

Official Results 2,709 of 2,709 precincts - NC State Board of Elections  |  Ballot [PDF]
TRUMP CRUZ KASICH RUBIO OTHERS (8)
NO PREF.
TOTAL
462,413
(40.23%)
422,611
(36.76%)
145,659
(12.67%)
88,907
(7.73%)
23,849
(2.07%)
6,081
(0.53%)
1,149,520
Carson 11,019 (0.96%), Bush 3,893 (0.34%), Huckabee 3,071 (0.27%), Paul 2,753 (0.24%), Christie 1,256 (0.11%), Fiorina 929 (0.08%), Santorum 663 (0.06%),
Gilmore 265 (0.02%)


Note: Early Voting from March 3-12, 2016.

Organization:  BUSH  |  CARSON  |   CRUZ  |  FIORINA  |  HUCKABEE  |  KASICH  |  KASICH SUPER PAC  |  RUBIO  |  TRUMP



OVERVIEW
Trump continues to win in the South; he carried 78 of North Carolina's 100 counties.  Cruz carried the other 22 including a band of four counties centered on Asheville and 16 counties stretching from Washington in the East to Forsyth in the West.




DELEGATES
72 Total Delegates:  30 At-Large, 39 Congressional District, 3 RNC.

Allocation of at-large and CD delegates is proportional based on the statewide vote.

National delegate allocation:  Trump 29, Cruz 27, Kasich 9, Rubio 6, uncertain 1.  


County Conventions:  March-April, 2016
Congressional District Conventions:  April 2-27, 2016
State Convention:  May 7-9, 2016

Delegates





 




OHIO PRESIDENTIAL PREFERENCE PRIMARY (66 delegates)

Official Results - 8,887 of 8,887 precincts - Ohio Secretary of State  |  Ballot [PDF]
KASICH
TRUMP CRUZ
RUBIO
OTHERS (6)
TOTAL
933,886
(46.95%)
713,404
(35.87%)
264,640
(13.31%)
46,478
(2.34%)
30,552
(1.54%)
1,988,960
Carson 14,351 (0.72%), Bush 5,398 (0.27%), Huckabee 4,941 (0.25%), Christie 2,430 (0.12%), Fiorina 2,112 (0.11%), Santorum 1,320 (0.07%)


Organization:  CRUZ KASICH  |  KASICH SUPER PAC  |  RUBIO  |  TRUMP



OVERVIEW
The survival of Gov. Kasich's campaign came to depend on him winning his home state.  Trump posed the biggest threat, but Kasich had home field advantage and secured endorsements of numerous elected officials and activists and even the Ohio Republican Party.  The pro-Kasich super PAC New Day for America was also active in Ohio, opening seven offices around the state. 

Kasich carried 55 counties to 33 for Trump.  Trump did best in the Southeast part of the state.

DELEGATES
66 Total Delegates:  15 At-Large, 48 Congressional District, 3 RNC.

Allocation is winner-take-all based on the statewide vote.

National delegate allocation:  Kasich 66.


Candidates were required to file paperwork with the Secretary of State 90 days before the primary, including for Republicans their own slate of delegates and alternates: 

Delegates




NORTH MARIANA ISLANDS PRESIDENTIAL CAUCUS (9 delegates)

Official Results - CNMI Republican Party  |  Rules of CNMI Republican Caucus  Ballot
TRUMP
CRUZ KASICH RUBIO TOTAL
343
113
10
5
471


Organization:  CARSON  |  CRUZ  |  TRUMP



OVERVIEW
Gov. Ralph DLG Torres announced his endorsement of Trump on March 12. 



DELEGATES
9 Total Delegates:  6 At-Large and 3 RNC.

CNMI GOP uses winner-take-all rules so Trump gets all nine delegates (+).

National delegate allocation:  Trump 9.


Delegates