Democracy in Action P2016

ARIZONA

11 Electoral Votes

Population
(Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Arizona Secretary of State)

Total Resident Population, July 1, 2016 est.	6,931,071
Total Registration, Nov. 2016	3,588,466 >

Rep. 1,239,614 (34.54%) Dem. 1,091,323 (30.41%) Lib. 31,358 (0.87%) Other 1,219,277 (33.98%) Grn. 6,894 (0.19%)
Arizona has: 15 counties.
Two largest counties: Maricopa, Pima.
Six largest cities: Phoenix, Tucson, Mesa, Chandler, Glendale, Scottsdale.
Note: 60.2-percent of registered voters are in Maricopa County.

Government
Governor: Doug Ducey (R) elected in 2014.
State Legislature: Arizona State Legislature House: 60 seats Senate: 30 seats
Local: Cities Counties Tribal NACO
U.S. House: 5R, 4D - 1. A.Kirkpatrick (R) | 2. M.McSally (R) | 3. R.Grijalva (D) | 4. P.Gosar (R) | 5. M.Salmon (R) | 6. D.Schweikert (R) | 7.R.Gallego (D) | 8. T.Franks (R) | 8. K.Sinema (D).
U.S. Senate: Jeff Flake (R) elected in 2014, John McCain (R) seeking re-election in 2016.

2016

U.S. Senate: Sen. John McCain (R), seeking a sixth term (first elected in 1986), fended off a challenge from Rep. Anne Kirkpatrick (D) by 1,359,267 (53.74%) to 1,031,245 (40.77%) and 138,634 (5.48%) for Gary Swing (G).
U.S. House: CD-1 was open due to Rep. Kirkpatrick's Senate run. The district, in Northeast Arizona, is one of the largest in the country and Native Americans account for more than 22-percent of the population. Former state legislator Tom O'Halleran (D) defeated Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu (R) by 142,219 (50.66%) to 121,745 (43.37%) and 16,746 (5.97%) for Ray Parrish (G).
State Legislature: Republicans maintained control of both chambers. In the Senate all 30 seats were up and the balance went from 18R, 12D to 17R, 13D. In the House all 60 seats were up and the balance went from 36R, 24D to 35R, 25D.
Ballot Measures: Voters rejected Prop. 205, the Regulation and Taxation of Marijuana Act (yes | no) by 51.32% to 48.68%. Prop. 206, the Fair Wages and Healthy Families Initiative (yes | no), which would increase the minimum wage to $10 in 2017 and gradually to $12 by 2020 and provide 40 hours annual earned paid sick time, passed by 58.33% to 41.67%.

State of Arizona
Secretary of State

AZ Democratic Party
AZ Green Party
AZ Libertarian Party
AZ Republican Party
Const. Party of AZ

Arizona Republic
Media (Newsp.)
TV, Radio

blogs
Blog for Arizona
Seeing Red AZ

Politics1-AZ
Ballotpedia-AZ

The Grand Canyon State

General Election -- Tuesday, November 8, 2016

Voting Eligible Population*: 4,738,332
VEP Highest Office Turnout Rate: 54.3%.

Registration: Rep. 1,239,614 (34.54%) Dem. 1,091,323 (30.41%) Lib. 31,358 (0.87%) Other 1,219,277 (33.98%) Grn. 6,894 (0.19%) ...Total 3,588,466.

Voter Registration Deadline: Oct. 10, 2016.
Early Voting Begins: Oct. 12, 2016.

Official Results >
Clinton/Kaine (Dem.)	1,161,167	(45.13)
Johnson/Weld (Lib.)	106,327	(4.13)
Stein/Baraka (Grn.)	34,345	(1.33)
+Trump/Pence (Rep.)	1,252,401	(48.67)
Darrell Castle (w/in)	1,058	(0.04)
Evan McMullin (w/in)	17,449	(0.68)
more write-ins (14)	418	(0.02)
Total........2,573,165

Ballots cast: 2,661,497

Overview: Democrats had not carried Arizona in the presidential race since 1996, but the Clinton campaign made a play for the state, including staff on the ground, TV ads, and several late visits. The Republican ticket nonetheless won the state by 91,234 votes (3.54 percentage points), carrying 11 counties to four for Clinton-Kaine (Apache, Coconino, Pima and Santa Cruz). With the benefit of hindsight, many pundits questioned the Democrats' investment here, saying they should have focused on top-tier battleground states.
Officials in Maricopa County made improvements after "completely unacceptable" long lines and confusion marked the March 22 presidential primary (+, PDF).
General Election Visits
[SOS | parties] Clinton | Trump
BALLOT [PDF]

[State Primary: August 30, 2016]

Presidential Preference Election -- Tuesday, March 22, 2016

USEP: Voting Age Pop.: 5,134,596. Voting Eligible Pop.: 4,874,592. Total Ballots Cast: 1,095,111 [D 468,461 R 625,770 O 880]. VEP Turnout Rate: 23.5%.
Registration: Rep. 1,131,838 (34.32%) Dem. 952,527 (28.88%) Lib. 25,333 (0.77%) Other 1,883,800 (35.90%) Grn. 4,382 (0.13%) Am. 500 (0.02%) Total 3,297,880.

Democrats
85 Delegates: 50 District, 16 At-Large, 9 PLEO, 10 Unpledged.

Details

Republicans
58 Delegates: 3 RNC, 34 At-Large, 21 by CD (3 x 7 CD).

Details

General Election Winners in Arizona, 1992-2012

1992	1996	2000	2004	2008	2012
Bush 38.47%	Clinton 46.52%	Bush 51.02%	Bush 54.87%	McCain 53.64%	Romney 53.65%

and the details...

General Election -- Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Voting Eligible Population*: 4,360,076.
VEP Highest Office Turnout Rate: 52.9%.

Registration: Rep. 1,120,992 (35.88%) Dem. 952,931 (30.50%) Lib. 22,086 (0.71%) Other 1,023,603 (32.76%) Grn. 4,863 Am. 237 ...Total 3,124,712.

Voter Registration Deadline: Oct. 9, 2012.
Early Voting Begins: Oct.11, 2012.

Official Results >
Obama/Biden (Dem.)	1,025,232	(44.59)
Stein/Honkala (Grn.)	7,816	(0.34)
Johnson/Gray (Lib.)	32,100	(1.40)
+Romney/Ryan (Rep.)	1,233,654	(53.65)
write-ins (6)	452
Total........2,299,254

Ballots cast: 2,323,579

2012 Overview
The Obama campaign made some noise about Arizona being in play (+), and worked to register voters, but in the end did not fully engage. When the votes were counted the result was similar to in 2008; the Romney/Ryan ticket won with a plurality of 208,422 votes (9.06 percentage points), carrying 11 counties to four for Obama/Biden.
General Election Details
Obama | (Romney)
BALLOT [PDF]

General Election -- Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Voting eligible population*: 4,096,006.
VEP Highest Office Turnout Rate: 56.0%.

Early voting began Oct. 2, 2008.
Early ballots requested: 1,347,428.
Early ballots returned: 1,233,333.
Early ballots counted: 1,227,267...this is 52.88% of the 2,320,951 ballots cast.

Registration: Rep. 1,118,587 (37.44%) Dem. 1,022,252 (34.22%) Lib. 18,153 (0.61%) Other 824,450 (27.60%) Grn. 4,009 ...Total 2,987,451 +

Official Results >
Obama/Biden (Dem.)	1,034,707	(45.12)
McKinney/Clemente (Grn.)	3,406	(0.15)
Barr/Root (Lib.)	12,555	(0.55)
+McCain/Palin (Rep.)	1,230,111	(53.64)
Nader/Gonzalez (none)	11,301	(0.49)
Chuck Baldwin (w/in)	1,371	(0.06)
Jay Charles (w/in)	16	-
Jonathan Allen (w/in)	8	-
Total........2,293,475

Ballots cast: 2,320,951.

2008 Overview
Sen. McCain won his home state, although the Obama campaign ran some late ads here. Also of note, Republicans' registration advantage had been reduced from 5.33 percentage points (140,988) in Nov. 2004 to 3.22 percentage points (96,335) in Nov. 2008. (+) Nonetheless the McCain-Palin ticket carried 11 counties to four for Obama-Biden, gaining a plurality of 195,404 votes (8.52 percentage points).
Obama/Allies | McCain/Allies | Nader

General Election -- Tuesday, November 2, 2004

Voting Eligible Population*: 3,717,055.
VEP Highest Office Turnout Rate: 54.1%.

Early voting began Sept. 30, 2004.
Early ballots requested: 938,409.
Early ballots returned: 839,714.
Early ballots counted: 830,455...this is 40.75% of the 2,038,069 ballots cast.

Registration: Rep. 1,055,252 (39.92%), Dem. 914,264 (34.59%), Lib. 18,261 (0.69%), Other 655,554 (24.80%) ...Total 2,643,331.

Official Results >
Kerry/Edwards (Dem.)	893,524	(44.40)
Badnarik/Campagna (Lib.)	11,856	(0.59)
+Bush/Cheney (Rep.)	1,104,294	(54.87)
w/in Cobb/LaMarche	138	-
w/in Nader/Camejo	2,773	(0.14)
Total........2,012,585

Ballots cast: 2,038,069.

2004 Overview
Although Arizona was classified as a battleground state, Bush more than doubled his plurality, winning by 210,770 votes (10.47 percentage points). 480,569 more votes were cast in the presidential race in 2004 than in 2000, a 31.4% increase. As in 2000 Bush carried 11 counties including the largest, Maricopa County, while the Democratic ticket won in four counties (Apache and Coconino in the North and Pima and Santa Cruz in the South) (results by county).
General Election Details
Kerry/Allies | Bush-Cheney '04

General Election -- Tuesday, November 7, 2000

Voting Eligible Population*: 3,357,701.
VEP Highest Office Turnout Rate: 45.6%.

Arizona had the third lowest turnout as a percentage of voting eligible population after Hawaii and Nevada.

Early ballots requested: 643,987.
Early ballots counted: 578,215...this is 37.08% of the 1,559,520 ballots cast.

Registration: Rep. 942,078 (43.35%) Dem. 830,904 (38.24%) Lib. 12,576 (0.58%) Grn. 3,807 (0.18%) NLP 101 (0.00%) Reform 1,588 (0.07%) Other 382,068 (16.66%) ...Total 2,173,122.

Official Results >
Gore/Lieberman (Dem.)	685,341	(44.73)
Nader/LaDuke (Grn.)	45,645	(2.98)
Smith/Suprynowicz (Lib.)	5,775	(0.38)
Hagelin/Goldhaber (NLP)	1,120	(0.07)
Buchanan/Foster (Ref.)	12,373	(0.81)
+Bush/Cheney (Rep.)	781,652	(51.02)
Phillips/Frazier (Write-in)	110	(0.01)
Total........1,532,016

Ballots cast 1,559,520.

2000 Overview
In the 1992 and 1996 presidential elections, Arizona ended up as one of the closest states; Bush won by about 30,000 votes or less than 3% in 1992 and Clinton won by about 30,000 votes or less than 3% in 1996. This time around the state went a bit more solidly back into the Republican column as Gov. Bush won with a plurality of 96,311 votes (6.29 percentage points). Libertarian Harry Browne was kept off the ballot in the state where he achieved his strongest 1996 showing because of a conflict that split the state party into two factions. In addition to candidate races, Arizona voters faced 14 propositions on the Nov. 7 ballot.
General Election Activity

1992 and 1996 General Elections

1992

Bush (Rep.)..........572,086	(38.47)
Clinton (Dem.)......543,050	(36.52)
Perot (Ind.)...........353,741	(23.79)
Others (4+w/in)......18,098	(1.22)
Total........1,486,975

1996

Clinton (Dem.)......653,288	(46.52)
Dole (Rep.)...........622,073	(44.29)
Perot (Ref.)..........112,072	(7.98)
Browne (Lib.).........14,358	(1.02)
Write-ins.................2,614	(0.19)
Total........1,404,405

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