- The Road to Cleveland « The Early Contests - Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada
The Early Contests - IA, NH, SC and NV
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The Early Contests
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March
1
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Early Contests - Dems: IA,
NH, NV, SC
133 Delegates
Summary: The warm up, pre-primary period is over; now the
voters start having their say. To continue on to later contests,
a candidate
must do well in at least one of the early contests. ("Well" is
subject to interpretation by the candidates/campaigns.) Ted Cruz
started the 2016 Republican nominating process off with a win in the
Iowa precinct caucuses. Donald Trump then went on to solid wins
in New
Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada, shocking many observers and
establishing himself as the frontrunner. After these four
contests were finished, the Republican field had been trimmed by seven
candidates, going from 12 to five.
FEB. 1 - IOWA PRECINCT CAUCUSES (30 delegates)
| CRUZ | TRUMP |
RUBIO |
CARSON |
PAUL |
BUSH |
FIORINA |
KASICH |
HUCKABEE |
CHRISTIE |
SANTORUM |
TOTAL |
| 51,666 (27.6%) |
45,429 (24.3%) |
43,228 (23.1%) |
17,394 (9.3%) |
8,481 (4.5%) |
5,238 (2.8%) |
3,485 (1.9%) |
3,474 (1.9%) |
3,345 (1.8%) |
3,284 (1.8%) |
1,778 (0.95%) |
186,932 |
OVERVIEW
By Caucus Day, February 1, eleven candidates were competing in
Iowa.
Close to 187,000
Iowa Republicans participated in the precinct caucuses, breaking
the previous record of 121,503 set in 2012.
Ted Cruz, Donald Trump and Marco Rubio won the first,
second
and third
place tickets out of Iowa and the momentum that came with that.
The Cruz campaign by all accounts had a very strong ground game.
Trump had long been leading in the polls, a fact which he frequently
pointed out. His decision to skip the Jan. 28 FOX News Debate in
Des Moines may have cost him some support. Many observers think
that Rubio might have done better had he devoted more time and
resources to the state.
The caucuses trimmed the field by three candidates:
former Gov. Mike Huckabee, the 2008 caucus winner, Sen. Rick Santorum,
the 2012 caucus winner, and Sen. Rand Paul bowed out following poor
showings. Ironically Santorum (94 days) and Huckabee (79 days)
put the most time into the state, and the candidate who put in the
third highest number of days, then-Gov. Bobby Jindal (75 days),
withdrew before
the caucuses.
Reactions
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Visits
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Organization
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Endorsements
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The
Ad Campaign
DELEGATES
30 Total Delegates: 15 At-Large, 12
Congressional District and 3 RNC.
Allocation is proportional based on the statewide vote with no
threshold.
National delegate
allocation: Cruz 8, Trump 7, Rubio 7, Carson
3, Paul 1, Bush 1, Fiorina 1, Kasich 1, Huckabee 1.
County Conventions
(99): March 12, 2016.
...selected a total of 2,500
delegates to...
District Conventions (4): April 9, 2016
State Convention: May 21, 2016 at the Varied Industries Building,
Iowa State Fairgrounds in Des Moines.
FEB. 9 - NEW HAMPSHIRE PRESIDENTIAL PREFERENCE
PRIMARY (23
delegates)
| TRUMP | KASICH |
CRUZ |
BUSH |
RUBIO |
CHRISTIE |
FIORINA |
CARSON |
MORE (22) |
TOTAL |
| 100,735 (35.60%) |
44,932 (15.88%) |
33,244 (11.75%) |
31,341 (11.08%) |
30,071 (10.63%) |
21,089 (7.45%) |
11,774 (4.16%) |
6,527 (2.31%) |
3,266 (1.15%) |
282,979 |
Cullison 56, Cook 55, Jindal 53, Lynch 47, Robinson 44, Comley Sr. 32, Prag 16, Dyas Sr 15, McCarthy (12),
Iwachiw (9), Huey (8), Drozd (6), Mann (5), Messina (5)
OVERVIEW
By Primary Day, February 9, eight candidates were competing. In
addition to the main narrative of how Donald Trump would fare, a major
story line was the competition for support among the three governors,
former Gov. Jeb Bush, Gov. Chris Christie and Gov. John Kasich, all of
whom had staked the future of their campaigns on achieving a credible
showing here.
Turnout in the Republican primary was a record,
eclipsing the 248,475 who voted in 2012.
Donald Trump proved he is for real; he won
convincingly, carrying every county. His margin of 55,803 votes
(19.72 percentage points) over the next nearest candidate John Kasich
exceeded John McCain's memorable win over George Bush in the 2000
primary, although his share of the vote, 35.60%, was the lowest since
Pat Buchanan's 27.3% edged Bob Dole's 26.2% in 1996.
Kasich, as the top finishing of the three governors, achieved a boost. Sen. Ted Cruz did better than expected. Bush's fourth place finish was seen as good enought to continue, or, as his campaign put it, "New Hampshire reset the race. Jeb is the candidate coming out of the Granite State with momentum and a path forward." Sen. Marco Rubio's fifth place showing put a damper on his prospects and was in significant measure due to his performance at the Feb. 6 ABC News debate in Manchester, where he was rattled by sharp attacks from Christie. Christie, however, only managed a sixth place showing. He and Fiorina, along with former Gov. Jim Gilmore suspended their campaigns following the primary.
Reactions
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Visits
| Organization
| Endorsements
DELEGATES
23 Total Delegates: 14 At-Large, 6
Congressional District and 3 RNC.
Allocation of the at-large and CD delegates is proportional based on
the statewide vote with a 10% threshold; the three remaining delegates
go to the statewide winner.
Republican candidates filed delegate slates with the NH Secretary of
State by Dec. 11, 2015.
National delegate
allocation: Trump 11, Kasich 4, Cruz 3, Bush
3, Rubio 2.
Delegates and Alternates
[PDF]
Source: New Hampshire Secretary of State
See also: Shane Goldmacher. "Trump delegates
blocked from key posts in New Hampshire." Politico, May 2, 2016.
FEB. 20 - SOUTH CAROLINA PRESIDENTIAL PREFERENCE
PRIMARY (50
delegates)
| TRUMP | RUBIO |
CRUZ |
BUSH |
KASICH |
CARSON |
TOTAL |
| 240,882 (32.51%) |
166,565 (22.48%) |
165,417 (22.33%) |
58,056 (7.84%) |
56,410 (7.61%) |
53,551 (7.23%) |
740,881 |
OVERVIEW
By the time the primary arrived on Feb. 20, 2016 the
Republican field
had been pared to six candidates. Home state Sen. Lindsey
Graham's campaign had put a wrinkle in the race, but he ended his
effort on
Dec. 21, 2015.
Donald Trump carried 44 of 46
counties, finishing with
a margin of 74,314 votes (10.03 percentage points) over the next
nearest candidate Sen. Marco Rubio. South Carolina Republican
Party chairman Matt Moore observed that, "Donald Trump put together the
most unique coalition to ever win a South Carolina primary."
Trump did well in the state's rural areas, and in Horry and Georgetown
counties. Overall his share of the vote was
a relatively low 32.5%.
Rubio had a some key South
Carolina operatives on his campaign team, and he gained the
endorsements
of Gov. Nikki Haley, Sen. Tim Scott and Rep. Trey Gowdy. However,
he could not recover from his performance in the New Hampshire debate
and fifth-place showing in that primary, and finished second. He
carried Richland
and
Charleston
counties, and he did regain some of his "Marcomentum" by finishing
ahead of Sen. Ted Cruz.
South Carolina, seen as ideal territory for Cruz's
strong social conservative message, provided a bit of a setback as he
finished third, well behind Trump and narrowly trailing Marco
Rubio.
Allegations of lying and dirty tricks likely hurt Cruz (+).
Former Gov. Jeb Bush had limited support in South
Carolina, but his campaign team put together a credible
organization. In mid-January Sen. Graham
endorsed Bush, and some observers thought Graham's organization could
provide a boost. However, Bush finished in single digits and
ended his campaign.
Reactions
|
Visits
| Organization
| Endorsements
DELEGATES
50 Total Delegates: 26
At-Large, 21 Congressional District
and 3 RNC.
Allocation of at-large delegates is winner-take-all by statewide vote;
allocation of CD delegates is winner take all by CD.
National delegate
allocation: Trump 50.
"Twenty-six (26) statewide national
delegates will be elected at the S.C. Republican Party State Convention
in May
2016. Twenty-one (21) Congressional district delegates will be elected
at the
seven (7) Congressional district conventions in April 2016. No person
is
allowed to run for delegate or alternate to the National Convention who
is not elected
a state delegate or alternate to the state convention in the preceding
year."
Congressional District Conventions: April 9-30,
2016.
State Convention: May 7, 2016 at the Columbia Metropolitan
Convention Center in Columbia, SC.
FEB. 23 - NEVADA PRESIDENTIAL PREFERENCE CAUCUSES
(30 delegates)
| TRUMP | RUBIO |
CRUZ |
CARSON |
KASICH |
MORE
(6) |
TOTAL |
| 34,531 (45.91%) |
17,940 (23.85%) |
16,079 (21.38%) |
3,619 (4.81%) |
2,709 (3.60%) |
338 (0.44%) |
75,216 |
OVERVIEW
Five candidates were competing. The Nevada Republican Party
organized caucuses at 139 sites around the state and there was a record
turnout (+).
Donald
Trump
achieved
a
margin
of
more
than
20
percentage
points
(22.06%)
over
his
nearest
competitor,
Marco
Rubio.
He
carried
all
counties
except
for
Elko
and
Lincoln,
which
Cruz
won.
Rubio
had
hoped
for
a strong showing here; again he had some notable
endorsements, and again he fell short.
Reactions
| Organization
| Endorsements
DELEGATES
30 Total Delegates: 15 At-Large, 12
Congressional District and 3 RNC.
Allocation of both at-large and CD delegates is proportional based on
the statewide vote with no threshold.
National delegate
allocation: Trump 14, Rubio 7, Cruz 6, Carson 2, Kasich 1.
"the Nevada Republican Party chooses that its National Delegates and Alternates shall be allocated proportionally based on the final results of the Nevada Presidential Preference Poll or Presidential Primary Election, as appropriate, rounded to the nearest whole number. All allocated Delegates shall be elected at the Nevada Republican Convention on behalf of all candidates who receive the percentage of votes required for one or more delegates. Any candidate who receives less than the percentage required for one Delegate will receive no Delegates."
County Conventions: March-April 2016.
Example Nye County 1, 2 [PDFs]
State
Convention: May 14-15, 2016 in Reno. >
Delegate
Info
+ [PDF]
Copyright © 2016 Eric M. Appleman/Democracy in
Action.
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