"I
think...we're a little crazy and cantankerous, and we're always sort of
different in
throwing a monkey wrench in the machinery, but fundamentally I think
we're a pretty good reflection of America."
--Phil
Noble
First-in-the-South
South Carolina has
held the
first-in-the-South Republican presidential primary since 1980.
State Republicans are proud of the primary (1, 2).
Through to
the
2012
campaign, the South Carolina
GOP primary had acquired a reputation as a
"firewall" where the frontrunner was able to fend off a strong
challenger and "seal the deal." The state party
noted that, "Since the inception of
the South
Carolina
Primary in 1980, no candidate has ever lost the South Carolina Primary
and gone on to become the Republican Party's nominee for
President." In 2012
that distinction was lost; Newt Gingrich achieved a strong win in the
South Carolina primary,
but Mitt Romney rebounded in Florida and went on to win the nomination.
Democrats have less experience with the South Carolina presidential primary. In 2004 the primary was relatively early, on February 3, and Sen. John Edwards, the Southerner in the race, won. In 2006 the Democratic National Committee voted to add South Carolina as a new pre-window primary, thus reinforcing the state's early position. Sen. Barack Obama handily won the Jan. 26, 2008 primary.
South Carolina is one of
the few states where Democrats and Republicans vote on different dates;
the Republican primary took place on Feb. 20, 2016 and the
Democratic primary on Feb. 27, 2016.
The primary races in South Carolina did not get
as much
attention as Iowa and New Hampshire did, but campaigns did a lot of
work here.
On the Republican side, the race was distorted somewhat by the
candidacy of home state Sen. Lindsey Graham. Graham's candidacy
did not deter other candidates from
working the Palmetto State, but appeared to slow the pace of
endorsements, for example. Graham suspended his campaign on Dec.
21, 2015 (+),
and
other
campaigns
worked
to
attract
his
supporters.
Visits
to
South
Carolina
and
time
spent
in
the
state was fairly similar
among the candidates.
A total of 16 Republican candidates filed to appear on
the
primary ballot by the
Sept. 30 deadlline (+) despite
the high $40,000 filing fee. (Walker and Jindal subsequently
suspended their
campaigns
and were able to remove their names, although their filing fees are
forfeited). On Nov. 30, SCGOP chairman Matt
Moore certified 14 candidates to appear on the ballot (+).
On the
Democratic side, the race was considerably
quieter. For Democrats, the Nevada caucuses preceded the
South Carolina primary so this was the fourth contest. Former
Sec. of State Hillary Clinton was seen as having an advantage due to
her support in the African-American community. There was little
activity in the
way of candidate visits, just a trickle, but the campaigns of Clinton
and Sen. Bernie Sanders built active organizations. (Former Gov.
Martin O'Malley had a tiny organization before he dropped out).
On Dec. 8 the
SCDP executive council certified four candidates to appear on the
ballot (+).
South Carolina has a population of 4.8 million. Its 46 counties stretch from the Coastal Plain to the Piedmont Plateau (Pee Dee) to the Blue Ridge Mountains. There are stark differences. Upstate is a strong area for social conservatives. For example, Bob Jones University, described in a 1966 article as "The Buckle on the Bible Belt" is located in Greenville In historic Charleston, one finds stately mansions and a genteel atmosphere, attracting many tourists. About 28% of South Carolina's population consider themselves Black or African American, based on the 2010 Census, but in nine counties the Black or African American population is over 50%, topped by Allendale County at 72.9%. At the other extreme in Pickens County the Black or African American population is 6.8%. There is also a significant veterans population; the South Carolina State Office of Veterans' Affairs reports 420,968 veterans make South Carolina home >.
Several significant events occurred in South Carolina
during this cycle. All campaigning was put on hold for a time
following the murder of nine black
churchgoers at Emanuel A.M.E. Church in Charleston on June 17,
2015. On July 10, the Confederate flag was removed from the State
House grounds. In early October Hurriicane Joaquin and other
weather systems converged to produce a "1-in-1,000 year rain event"
which led to record rainfalls and massive flooding in the state.
In the pre-campaign period, the 2014 mid-term
elections provided ample opportunity for visiting presidential
prospects to help out candidates and committees of their respective
parties. The
governor's race attracted
the most
attention. Gov. Nikki Haley
(R) faced a re-match with state Sen. Vincent Sheheen (D), whom she
defeated in 2010 by a margin of 51.4% to 47.0% (59,991 votes out of
more than 1.3 million cast). This time the race was not as close,
and Haley defeated Sheheen by 55.9% to 41.4%. In the lieutenant
governor's race, Henry McMaster (R) defeated Bakari Sellers (D) by
58.8% to 41.1%.
Both U.S. Senate seats were up, but they proved relatively lopsided;
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) defeated Brad Hutto (D) and Tim
Scott (R) defeated Joyce Dickerson (D).
All told through Election Day Nov. 4, 2014, 13
Republican presidential prospects
made 37 visits totalling 45 days, while three Democratic prospects made
11 visits totaling 12 days. On the Republican side, Sen. Paul led
with the most visits, six, but Gov. Perry, Sen. Cruz, former Sen.
Santorum and Gov. Jindal were not far behind. On the Democratic
side, Gov. O'Malley, Sen. Sanders and Vice President Biden all spent
four days in state, but O'Malley was most active helping candidates,
including paying at
least four staff to
work on
Democratic campaigns through his PAC. The independent Ready for
Hillary super PAC was active as well; it held its first South
Carolina fundraiser in Feb. 2014, its Hillary bus made stops at
five college campuses in Aug.
2014, and South Carolina was one of 14 states where it sent staff
to work on Democratic campaigns from Oct. 1.
During the primaries,
potential presidential prospects
mostly avoided getting involved in primary contests. A noteworthy
exception occurred
in the June 10 primary race for lieutenant governor, where former Sen.
Rick Santorum
endorsed Hugh McMaster and former Gov. Mike Huckabee endorsed Mike
Campbell. McMaster finished comfortably ahead in the
primary but fell short of 50-percent; he went on to win the June 24
runoff.
Unlike in many states, in past South
Carolina's presidential primaries have been party-run affairs;
this posed a substantial financial and logistical challenge for the
state parties which had to raise the funds privately. The
tradition of
Saturday voting arose to reduce costs
and increase turnout.
In mid-2007 the General Assembly passed,
over then-Gov.
Mark Sanford (R)'s objections, a bill which required State Election
Commission to run the presidential preference primaries, while leaving
the setting of the primary dates and other details to the party
committees. The General
Assembly
passed S99
on June 5, 2007, Gov. Sanford vetoed the bill on June 14, and the
General
Assembly voted to override the veto
on June 19. The law referred specifically to
the 2008 cycle.
The issue came up again as budget negotiations proceeded in the first half of 2011; Gov. Nikki Haley opposed efforts by legislators to keep money in the budget to fund the 2012 Republican primary (+). Haley argued that private funds should be used, and she vetoed those provisions on June 28 (Vetoes 27 and 28 of H.3700, The General Appropriation Bill >). However, on June 29 the legislature overrode that veto.
The cost of running the 2008 Democratic and Republican
presidential primaries, which were conducted on different days—Jan. 19
for the Republicans and Jan. 26 for the Democrats—amounted to $2.4
million. Those costs were borne by the State Election Commission
and to a lesser extent by county officials. (The SEC reimburses
counties for most of the major expenses such as hiring poll managers,
producing ballots, and printing election notices; other costs such as
hiring temporary employees or renting trucks to deliver polling
machines are the counties' responsibility).
In 2012 South Carolina Republicans held their primary on January
21. President Obama was the only
candidate on the ballot, so Democrats did not hold a primary; instead
they held
precinct
reorganization
and
presidential
preference
meetings
on
January
28
and
March 3, 2012. To
participate in the Republican presidential primary,
candidates were required to pay a certification fee of $25,000 before
May 3, 2011 or $35,000
from May 4 to the filing deadline on November 1, 2011 at 5:00
p.m.. (The certification fee seems extraordinarily high, but
$20,000 of that goes to the SEC as required by Code. Section
7-11-20(B)(2) (>)
states,
"A
filing
fee
not
to
exceed
twenty
thousand
dollars,
as
determined
by
the
State
Election
Commission,
for
each
candidate
certified
by
a
political
party
must
be
transmitted
by
the
respective
political
party
to
the
State
Election
Commission
and
must
be
used
for
conducting
the
presidential
preference
primaries.")
Ten
candidates
filed
to
compete
in
the
primary
which
cost
the
SEC
$1.3
million
to
run.
(In 2011 there was some pushback from counties over costs of the presidential primary; they pointed to language in the Code specifically referring to the 2008 election cycle. The South Carolina Attorney General weighed in on the matter in June 2011 (+), and the South Carolina Supreme Court ruled against the counties in Beaufort County v. SC Election Commission, issued Nov. 22, 2011 (>). In mid-2014 the legislature passed and Gov. Haley signed into law a bill clarifying the language on presidential primaries (>)).
For 2016, Republicans and Democrats both conducted
primaries; the SEC estimated cost of the presidential primaries at
$2.5 million. To
participate in the Republican presidential primary,
candidates were required to file and pay a non-refundable certification
fee of $40,000 before
Sept. 30, 2015. As noted above, $20,000 of that went to the
SEC. The Democratic filing period was Dec. 15, 2015-Jan. 4, 2016.
July 27 |
Sen. Marco Rubio |
July 31 |
George P. Bush for former Gov.
Jeb Bush |
Aug. 17 |
Gov. John Kasich |
Aug. 24 |
Dr. Ben
Carson |
Aug. 28 |
Gov. Scott Walker |
Aug. 29 |
Sen. Ted Cruz |
Sept. 1 |
Sen. Lindsey
Graham |
Sept. 18 |
former Sen. Rick Santorum |
Sept. 18 |
Gov. Bobby Jindal |
Sept. 22 |
former Gov. Mike Huckabee |
Sept. 23 |
Carly Fiorina |
Sept. 23 |
Donald Trump |
Sept. 28 |
Kelley Paul
for Sen. Rand Paul |
Sept. 28 |
former Gov.
Jim Gilmore |
Sept. 28 |
Gov. Chris Christie by mail |
Sept. 30 |
former Gov. George Pataki by mail |
Kendra Stewart, professor
at the College of Charleston, states, "South
Carolina can be expected to do the unexpected. The primary here
is
often a game changer – South Carolina tends to go against the grain
and picks the candidate who is not the likely suspect." Phil
Noble,
president of the South Carolina New Democrats and founder and CEO of
Phil Noble
&
Associates and Politics Online, describes his fellow Palmetto Staters
thusly, "I
think...we're a little crazy and cantankerous, and we're always sort of
different in
throwing a monkey wrench in the machinery, but fundamentally I think
we're a pretty good reflection of America."
Racial politics are
still a factor. The Confederate battle flag flew atop the Capitol
Dome in Columbia until 2000, when, after considerable debate, it was
relegated to a flagpole at the Confederate Soldier Monument on the
Statehouse grounds. In his 2014 gubernatorial campaign, the
Democratic candidate for governor Vincent Sheehen argued that the flag
should be moved off the Statehouse grounds. In July the flag was
removed. For Democrats, the African-American vote is
very significant.
Republican candidates meanwhile appealed to a number
of
audiences including
social conservatives in Upstate and Tea Party activists concerned about
big government. South
Carolina does
have
somewhat of a reputation for dirty tricks in politics. In 2011,
asked about the slow start of the presidential primary campaign,
Phil Noble stated, "SC has a long history of brutal Republican
presidential
primaries. I suspect that one reason that they have been slow to
engage down here is the same reason most kids don't stick their hand
into a barking pit bull's mouth—once you engage, its going to be
painful, noisy, bloody and an altogether nasty experience." The
2016 GOP primary saw its share of charges and countercharges (+).
Republicans
The "firewall" reputation traces to the first South Carolina Republican
presidential primary campaign in 1979-80, when legendary operative Lee
Atwater, with help from some dirty tricks, was able to orchestrate
Ronald Reagan's 55% to 30% win over John Connally, with Iowa caucus
winner George H.W. Bush running a distant third at 15%.
In 1988,
after mixed results in the earliest contests, Atwater steered now Vice
President George H.W. Bush to a 49% showing over Bob Dole and Steve
Forbes in South Carolina.
In 1992, after Pat Buchanan gained a surprisingly strong
showing in the New Hampshire primary, President George H. W. Bush
rebounded with resounding win in South Carolina.
In 1996, after mixed results in the earliest contests
Bob Dole defeated Pat Buchanan by 45% to 29%.
In 2000 Sen. John McCain came into South Carolina with
momentum from his win in the
New Hampshire primary only to encounter a scurrilous whispering
campaign and fall to Gov. George W. Bush by 53.4% to 41.9%.
Sen. John McCain's
2008 win over former Gov. Mike Huckabee in South Carolina, while not
overwhelming, was an
important
step on his road to the nomination. McCain and Huckabee roughly split
the counties,
Huckabee winning 24 to McCain's 22.
Thus, in election after election insurgent-type candidates fell short in South Carolina Republican presidential primaries. Until 2012.
In 2012, amid record turnout, Newt Gingrich achieved a
broad win, carrying
all but three
counties; Romney finished first in
Richland County (Columbia) and Charleston and Beaufort Counties on the
coast. While a couple of debates prior to the primary (1, 2) were
important, cultural differences were also a significant factor;
Romney, a Mormon from Massachussetts, simply could not connect with
some sectors of the electorate. [see also: economic impact
of the GOP primary]
By the time the primary arrived on Feb. 20, 2016 the
Republican field
had been pared to six candidates. Donald Trump carried 44 of 46
counties, finishing with
a margin of 74,314 votes (10.03 percentage points) over the next
nearest candidate Sen. Marco Rubio. Trump's share of the vote was
a relatively low 32.5%. Rubio had a some key South
Carolina operatives on his campaign team. He gained the
endorsements
of Gov. Nikki Haley, Sen. Tim Scott and Rep. Trey Gowdy, and managed a
second
place finish, regaining some of his "Marcomentum;" he carried Richland
and
Charleston
counties. South Carolina, seen as ideal territory for Cruz's
strong social conservative message, provided a bit of a setback as he
finished third, well behind Trump and narrowly trailing Marco
Rubio.
Allegations of lying and dirty tricks likely hurt Cruz (+).
Bush had seemed to be well positioned in South Carolina; he had a
well-respected campaign team. In mid-January Sen. Lindsey Graham
endorsed him, and some observers thought Graham's organization would
provide a further boost. However, Bush's
support collapsed and he ended his campaign that night.
740,881 votes were cast in the Republican primary. [Click for
details]
Feb. 20, 2016 |
Trump 240,882
(32.5%),
Rubio 166,565 (22.5%), Cruz 165,417 (22.3%), Bush 58,056
(7.8%), Kasich 56,410 (7.6%), Carson 53,551 (7.2%) |
740,881 |
Jan. 21, 2012 | Gingrich 244,113 (40.4%), Romney 168,152 (27.9%), Santorum 102,482 (17.0%), Paul 78,362 (13.0%), Others 10,747 (1.8%). | 603,856 |
Jan. 19, 2008 | McCain 147,686
(33.2%), Huckabee 132,943 (29.8%), F.Thompson 69,651
(15.6%), Romney 68,142 (15.3%), Others 27,077 (6.1%). |
445,499 |
Feb. 19,
2000 |
Bush 305,998 (53.4%), McCain 239,964 (41.9%), Keyes 25,996 (4.5%), Others 1,143 (0.2%). | 573,101 |
March 2, 1996 |
Dole 124,904
(45.1%),
Buchanan 80,824 (29.2%), Forbes 35,039 (12.7%), Alexander
28,647 (10.4%), Others 7,327 (2.7%). |
276,741 |
Democrats
In 2004 John Edwards, who
was born in Seneca, SC, benefited from his Southern roots in a strong
win over Sen. John Kerry.
2008 saw record turnout. Many blacks supported
the historic
candidacy of Sen. Barack Obama, and
Sen. Hillary Clinton lagged far behind.
On Feb. 27, 2016 Hillary Clinton scored a lopsided win
over Sen. Bernie Sanders, carrying every county.
Feb. 27, 2016 |
Clinton 272,379
(73.44%), Sanders 96,498 (26.02%), Wilson 1,314
(0.35%), O'Malley 713 (0.19%) |
370,904 |
Jan. 26, 2008 |
Obama 294,898
(55.4%), Clinton 140,990 (26.5%), Edwards 93,801
(17.6%), Others 2,462 (0.5%). |
532,151 |
Feb. 3, 2004 |
Edwards 125,944
(45.3%), Kerry 82,668 (29.8%), Sharpton 26,755
(9.6%), Clark 19,999 (7.2%), Dean 13,029 (4.7%), Others
9,342 (3.4%). |
277,737 |
Note:
DNC and RNC rules
differ on the timing of the 2016 South Carolina
primary. DNC rules
specify specific dates for the four
early states, including Feb. 27, 2016 for South Carolina; RNC rules
have a general carve-out period. As happened in
2008, the two
parties'
primaries will be held on different dates.
DNC rules specify earliest dates for the four
early states:
Rule 11 - "...Provided, however, that the Iowa
precinct caucuses may be held no earlier than 29 days before the first
Tuesday in March; that the New Hampshire primary may be held no earlier
than 21 days before the first Tuesday in March; that the Nevada
first-tier caucuses may be held no earlier than 10 days before the
first Tuesday in March; and that the South Carolina primary may be held
no earlier than 3 days before the first Tuesday in March..."
RNC rules have a general carve-out period that covers the four early states:
Rule 16 (4) (c) (1) - "No primary, caucus,
convention, or other process to elect, select, allocate, or bind
delegates to the national convention shall occur prior to March 1 or
after the second Saturday in June in the year in which a national
convention is held. Except Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and
Nevada may conduct their processes no earlier than one month before the
next earliest state in the year in which a national convention is held
and shall not be subject to the provisions of paragraph (c)(2) of this
rule."
Resources
Historical Perspective
Richard Gooding. "The Trashing of
John McCain." Vanity
Fair, Nov. 2004.
David Grann. "Ghosts: Can Lee Atwater's legacy save George W.?" The New Republic, Feb. 21, 2000.
C-SPAN. "South Carolina Primary News Coverage." March 2, 1996.
Stefan
Forbes, director. Sept.
2008. Boogie
Man:
The
Lee
Atwater
Story.
Interpositive Media. [focuses on the 1988 campaign]